The School of Odds
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Minnesota Wild v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 23:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Wild (Local)

Prediction 69.34%1.44fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -5.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%69.32%69.32%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.381.381.4178.74%72.42%72.46%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd
EV +1.19%
Edge +0.359%
Kelly +0.516%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%30.68%30.68%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.093.103.3034.84%32.37%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Wild (Local): 69.34%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 30.66%. For Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.19%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +1.19%E +0.359%K +0.516%G +0.006%5.5%2026-03-15 23:35
Everygame🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81%EV -0.347%E -0.107%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 23:15
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.31%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.69%EV -1.27%E -0.394%K -0.571%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 16:23
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.63%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 30.37%EV -1.57%E -0.490%K -0.712%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-15 23:10
BetAnything🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -1.88%E -0.588%K -0.855%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 16:25
Bet Right🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 23:15
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 23:35
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 23:15
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 23:15
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 23:30
Fliff🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -5.01%E -3.66%K -13.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.84%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-15 23:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94%EV -2.23%E -1.58%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.06%EV -4.03%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-15 22:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94%EV -2.23%E -1.58%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.06%EV -4.03%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-15 22:00
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.11%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.89%EV -4.33%E -1.39%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 23:33
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 02:20
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 14:49
BetUS🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 21:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-15 14:50
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.62%E -2.60%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-15 23:00
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 21:34
GTbets🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 23:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.78%E -5.85%K -23.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -4.95%E -1.60%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-15 23:35
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -5.56%E -1.81%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 23:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -3.62%E -2.60%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -7.40%E -2.45%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 23:05
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -3.62%E -2.60%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%EV -7.71%E -2.56%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 23:35
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -3.62%E -2.60%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%EV -7.71%E -2.56%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 23:35
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-15 23:35
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 16:30
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 16:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 16:30
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.31%E -3.13%K -11.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 23:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -9.55%E -3.24%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 16:34
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-14 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.32%EV -11.94%E -9.40%K -44.23%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.68%EV -12.00%E -4.18%K -6.42%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-15 23:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.43I 69.93%NM 70.08%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.92%-0.2%2026-03-15 23:29
ProphetX◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-03-15 23:30
Novig◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.38%3.24I 30.86%NM 30.62%0.8%2026-03-15 23:34
Polymarket◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-03-15 23:35
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69%0.9%2026-03-15 21:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-03-15 23:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%1.2%2026-03-15 23:25
Matchbook◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22%1.7%2026-03-15 23:30
Smarkets◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%2.7%2026-03-15 23:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.89%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.12%3.5%2026-03-15 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.89%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.12%3.5%2026-03-15 23:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.89%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.12%3.5%2026-03-15 23:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.89%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.99%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.12%3.5%2026-03-15 23:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.12%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.38%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.50%4.0%2026-03-15 23:35
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.94%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.73%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%4.6%2026-03-15 17:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.21%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.70%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.10%4.8%2026-03-15 23:00
1xBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.53%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.63%4.81I 20.79%NM 19.83%4.8%2026-03-15 23:25
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-15 23:15
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-15 23:15
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-15 23:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.94%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.98%5.4%2026-03-15 23:15
TABtouch🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%6.0%2026-03-15 23:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%6.7%2026-03-15 23:00
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.97%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%8.0%2026-03-15 23:35
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.89%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.10%8.2%2026-03-15 23:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.95%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%8.7%2026-03-15 23:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.74%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%8.8%2026-03-15 23:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.59%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.09%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.32%9.1%2026-03-15 23:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.40%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.31%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.29%9.3%2026-03-15 23:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.71%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.93%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.36%9.9%2026-03-15 23:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.46%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.03%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.51%10.7%2026-03-15 23:19