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Minnesota Wild v Tampa Bay Lightning
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Minnesota Wild (Local)
Prediction 44.00%2.27fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.06%43.96%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.172.2350.00%46.21%46.08%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)
Prediction 56.00%1.79fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%55.94%56.04%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.711.711.7463.69%58.63%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Minnesota Wild (Local): 44.00%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 56.00%. For Minnesota Wild (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.23, with an expected value of -1.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.83%EV -1.88%E -0.842%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.17%EV -2.56%E -1.47%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -2.76%E -1.25%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -3.12%E -1.80%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-03 21:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.91%EV -2.76%E -1.25%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.09%EV -3.12%E -1.80%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-03 21:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 15:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 15:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 02:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 15:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 20:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 23:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 20:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-03 15:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.36%E -3.17%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.20%E -1.45%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.48%E -3.88%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 16:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.08%E -1.87%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.08%E -1.87%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-03 15:08 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.08%E -1.87%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.52%E -2.08%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -3.12%E -1.80%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 02:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.52%E -2.08%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.68%E -2.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.52%E -2.08%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.68%E -2.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.52%E -2.08%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.68%E -2.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -4.96%E -2.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -4.96%E -2.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -4.96%E -2.30%K -4.27%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 02:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.24%E -2.48%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 22:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.40%E -2.51%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 20:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -6.28%E -2.95%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -3.68%E -2.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -6.28%E -2.95%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -3.68%E -2.14%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-04 02:21 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.60%E -3.62%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.80%E -2.82%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -12.00%E -6.00%K -12.00%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -12.08%E -7.69%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-03 23:18 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.84% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 56.16% | 0.0% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.81% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.19% | 0.6% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72% | 0.8% | 2026-03-04 02:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72% | 0.8% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 0.9% | 2026-03-04 01:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 44.03% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.97% | 0.9% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50% | 1.2% | 2026-03-04 02:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.22% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.78% | 1.9% | 2026-03-04 02:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.27% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.45% | 3.6% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.27% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.45% | 3.6% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.27% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.45% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.28% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.27% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.45% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.38% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.75% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.88% | 3.9% | 2026-03-04 02:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.05% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.21% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 02:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.38% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 02:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.35% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.57% | 4.32I 23.15%NM 22.08% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 02:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.36% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.36% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.36% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.36% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.08% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45% | 6.1% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35% | 6.5% | 2026-03-03 21:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.82% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.29% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89% | 7.5% | 2026-03-04 02:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.20% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64% | 7.7% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 43.81% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89% | 9.2% | 2026-03-03 23:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.53% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27% | 9.5% | 2026-03-03 23:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 32.82% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.03% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14% | 10.8% | 2026-03-04 02:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.14% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 43.75% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.11% | 10.9% | 2026-03-04 02:24 |