The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Dallas Stars v Vegas Golden Knights

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 23:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Stars (Local)

Prediction 55.62%1.80fair odd
EV -0.443%
Edge -0.247%
Kelly -0.560%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.63%55.63%55.84%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.721.731.7963.69%58.02%57.80%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vegas Golden Knights (Visit)

Prediction 44.38%2.25fair odd
EV +0.302%
Edge +0.134%
Kelly +0.240%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%44.37%44.16%46.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.132.2650.00%46.79%46.95%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dallas Stars (Local): 55.62%; Vegas Golden Knights (Visit): 44.38%. For Vegas Golden Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.26, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.302%.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.93%EV -4.89%E -2.86%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 43.07%EV +0.302%E +0.134%K +0.240%G +0.001%2.7%2026-03-22 22:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -6.00%E -3.55%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -0.142%E -0.063%K -0.113%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-21 20:30
Bet Right🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -4.34%E -2.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-22 22:55
ReBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.89%E -2.86%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-22 22:35
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 14:54
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 14:54
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -6.56%E -3.91%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 14:55
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.12%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.36%E -1.07%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -6.56%E -3.91%K -9.65%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -2.80%E -1.28%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 22:53
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.89%E -2.86%K -6.89%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.25%E -1.49%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-22 23:04
Betsson🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -6.00%E -3.55%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -3.69%E -1.70%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 18:30
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 23:05
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 23:04
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 23:00
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 23:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 22:50
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 23:03
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.12%E -4.26%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.58%E -2.13%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 23:05
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.02%E -2.35%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 22:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -0.443%E -0.247%K -0.560%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -5.91%E -2.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 23:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.22%EV -0.443%E -0.247%K -0.560%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.78%EV -5.91%E -2.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-22 23:05
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -2.67%E -1.52%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -5.91%E -2.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 23:05
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -2.67%E -1.52%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -5.91%E -2.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 22:59
PlayUp🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.34%E -2.52%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.91%E -2.79%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-22 23:05
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -6.36%E -3.01%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 23:05
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.56%E -0.879%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 23:04
Paddy Power🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.56%E -0.879%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 23:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.56%E -0.879%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-22 23:04
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.67%E -1.52%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.67%E -1.52%K -3.56%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 23:05
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 23:04
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.22%E -1.85%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 23:04
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-22 23:04
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.45%E -3.20%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.80%E -3.24%K -6.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 23:05
Everygame🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -0.443%E -0.247%K -0.560%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -8.13%E -3.93%K -7.60%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 23:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.02%E -4.40%K -8.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 23:04
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -3.78%E -2.18%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -9.02%E -4.40%K -8.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 23:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -12.68%E -8.08%K -22.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -11.24%E -5.62%K -11.24%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-22 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.84%2.21I 45.25%NM 45.16%0.2%2026-03-22 23:05
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%0.3%2026-03-22 23:05
Novig◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.33%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.67%0.4%2026-03-22 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-03-22 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-03-22 23:00
Polymarket◎1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64%0.9%2026-03-22 22:44
Smarkets◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72%1.6%2026-03-22 23:00
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-03-22 23:05
BetOpenly◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-03-22 22:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.33%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-22 14:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.33%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-22 14:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.33%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-22 21:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.11%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.33%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-03-22 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.19%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.77%4.4%2026-03-22 23:04
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.43%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.40%4.31I 23.20%NM 22.16%4.7%2026-03-22 22:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 43.23%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.76%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.02%4.7%2026-03-22 22:59
Coolbet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.09%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.25%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%5.1%2026-03-22 23:00
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-03-22 14:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-03-22 14:55
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-03-22 14:54
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.21%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-03-22 14:55
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-03-22 14:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.81%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%6.5%2026-03-22 15:34
LeoVegas🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.09%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.66%7.7%2026-03-22 14:54
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.83%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.87%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%8.6%2026-03-22 22:49
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%8.7%2026-03-22 23:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.06%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%9.1%2026-03-22 22:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.61%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.22%9.6%2026-03-22 23:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.90%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-03-22 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.90%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-03-22 22:33
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.80%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.42%13.9%2026-03-22 23:05