The School of Odds
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Buffalo Sabres v Tampa Bay Lightning

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 23:07 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Sabres (Local)

Prediction 48.23%2.07fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.42%48.16%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.971.962.0254.64%50.88%50.89%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 51.77%1.93fair odd
EV -1.11%
Edge -0.582%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.58%51.84%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.851.851.9158.82%54.12%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 48.23%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 51.77%. For Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.91, with an expected value of -1.11%; they did not produce positive expected value.

22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.34%EV -2.58%E -1.28%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.66%EV -2.15%E -1.14%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.4%2026-04-06 22:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%EV -2.58%E -1.28%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.06%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-06 22:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%EV -2.58%E -1.28%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.06%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-06 22:25
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -2.58%E -1.28%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -5.77%E -3.17%K -7.04%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-06 16:30
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 22:00
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 15:25
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 15:25
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 14:38
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 23:00
GTbets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 14:40
BetUS🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 20:40
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 20:14
Fliff🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.55%E -1.77%K -3.55%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 23:05
Bet Right🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-06 22:40
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 15:25
Everygame🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.51%E -2.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 17:09
ReBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -5.00%E -2.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -2.66%E -1.42%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-06 22:40
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -5.00%E -2.54%K -5.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 21:59
BetAnything🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.69%EV -5.48%E -2.79%K -5.71%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.31%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 22:25
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.18%E -1.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 22:45
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.18%E -1.70%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-06 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -3.70%E -1.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 22:48
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 20:49
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 22:49
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 22:50
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 23:05
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.22%E -2.28%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 20:54
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 15:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.25%E -2.87%K -6.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 23:05
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -5.96%E -3.06%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.81%E -3.78%K -8.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-06 22:50
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.11%E -0.582%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 22:40
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.11%E -0.582%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 22:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.89%E -4.13%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.11%E -0.582%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-06 22:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.37%E -4.41%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.63%E -0.857%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 22:40
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.37%E -4.41%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.63%E -0.857%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 23:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -11.75%E -6.42%K -14.15%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.84%EV -11.98%E -7.05%K -17.12%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-06 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%0.0%2026-04-06 22:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%0.6%2026-04-06 23:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74%1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26%0.6%2026-04-06 23:05
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-04-06 22:45
Polymarket◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-04-06 18:19
Matchbook◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%1.1%2026-04-06 23:05
ProphetX◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65%1.4%2026-04-06 23:05
Novig◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.22%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.78%1.7%2026-04-06 23:05
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.1%2026-04-06 23:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.56%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%3.2%2026-04-06 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.56%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%3.2%2026-04-06 21:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.56%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%3.2%2026-04-06 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.56%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.37%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.07%3.2%2026-04-06 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.44%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.57%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.99%3.6%2026-04-06 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.53%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.21%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.26%4.5%2026-04-06 22:59
1xBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.89%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.12%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.00%4.7%2026-04-06 22:55
Coolbet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.96%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.42%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%5.3%2026-04-06 22:44
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%5.4%2026-04-06 22:00
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%5.4%2026-04-06 22:00
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%5.4%2026-04-06 21:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.49%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.14%5.4%2026-04-06 21:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.48%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.79%6.7%2026-04-06 22:49
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.60%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%7.1%2026-04-06 21:59
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%7.7%2026-04-06 22:00
Betway🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%7.7%2026-04-06 23:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.77%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.85%8.1%2026-04-06 22:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-04-06 23:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%9.1%2026-04-06 22:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 36.73%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.87%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.40%10.2%2026-04-06 23:04
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.55%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.07%12.6%2026-04-06 21:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.10%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.55%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.35%14.7%2026-04-06 23:00