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Buffalo Sabres v Tampa Bay Lightning

2026-11-12 00:10 UTC — NHL

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Sabres (Local)

Prediction 46.42%2.15fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -0.996%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.17%46.35%46.38%47.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.052.1350.00%48.66%48.78%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit)

Prediction 53.58%1.87fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.85%53.65%53.62%54.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.801.8257.80%56.26%55.56%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 46.42%; Tampa Bay Lightning (Visit): 53.58%. For Buffalo Sabres (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.13, with an expected value of -1.13%; they do not produce positive expected value.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.66%EV -1.13%E -0.528%K -0.996%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.34%EV -4.09%E -2.29%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.8%2026-11-10 19:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-10 19:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-10 19:25
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-10 19:23
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.31%E -4.22%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-10 18:59
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.31%E -4.22%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-10 18:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.52%E -1.20%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -7.31%E -4.22%K -10.01%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-10 18:59
Betsson🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -3.91%E -1.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -6.24%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-10 19:34
NordicBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.81%EV -3.91%E -1.89%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.19%EV -6.24%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-11-10 19:35
Bet Right🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -4.37%E -2.12%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-10 17:35
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 16:25
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:40
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:20
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:19
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:20
GTbets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 16:50
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:04
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:15
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-10 19:14
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-10 19:25
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-10 19:25
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-10 19:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -4.84%E -2.36%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -6.24%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-10 16:24
Caesars🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -2.48%E -1.37%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-11-10 17:35
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -5.30%E -2.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-10 19:05
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -6.23%E -3.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -3.56%E -1.98%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-10 19:33
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.23%E -3.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-10 19:20
Neds🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -6.23%E -3.08%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -5.16%E -2.92%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-10 19:20
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.31%E -4.22%K -10.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-10 19:00
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.31%E -4.22%K -10.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-10 18:59
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -7.16%E -3.58%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -7.31%E -4.22%K -10.01%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-10 19:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-11-10 16:25
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.08%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.92%1.9%2026-11-10 19:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%2.1%2026-11-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81%2.1%2026-11-10 19:20
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 46.30%1.69I 59.17%NM 53.70%10.2%2026-11-10 19:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-11-10 19:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-11-10 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-11-10 19:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.17%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.56%3.1%2026-11-10 19:20
1xBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.24%2.27I 44.05%NM 42.69%4.39I 22.78%NM 22.07%3.2%2026-11-10 19:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.26%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.66%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.07%4.6%2026-11-10 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.18%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-11-10 19:20
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.18%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.21%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.61%5.3%2026-11-10 19:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.65%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.28%5.6%2026-11-10 18:59
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.47%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.15%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%6.4%2026-11-10 19:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%8.9%2026-11-10 18:57
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.30%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%8.9%2026-11-10 19:00
picklebet_au🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%10.0%2026-11-10 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%10.6%2026-11-10 19:00
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.35%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.53%10.9%2026-11-10 19:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.21%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-11-10 19:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.52%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.62%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.86%17.3%2026-11-10 19:00