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Buffalo Sabres v Montréal Canadiens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Sabres (Local)
Prediction 51.62%1.94fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.52%51.65%51.70%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.851.851.9058.82%54.15%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Montréal Canadiens (Visit)
Prediction 48.38%2.07fair odd
EV -1.31%
Edge -0.642%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%48.35%48.30%49.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.971.972.0454.64%50.81%50.76%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 51.62%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 48.38%. For Montréal Canadiens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.07. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.04, with an expected value of -1.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.
20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.28%EV -1.92%E -1.01%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.72%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -2.43%E -1.29%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -4.21%E -2.13%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -2.43%E -1.29%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -4.21%E -2.13%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -2.43%E -1.29%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -6.63%E -3.44%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 23:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04%EV -2.95%E -1.57%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96%EV -1.31%E -0.642%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 2.2% | 2026-05-18 22:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.17%EV -3.47%E -1.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.83%EV -5.18%E -2.64%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-18 22:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.47%E -1.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 22:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.47%E -1.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 22:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.47%E -1.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.47%E -1.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 23:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.47%E -1.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-18 19:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -3.98%E -2.14%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -4.21%E -2.13%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-18 19:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-18 19:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18%EV -3.73%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-18 23:28 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.21%E -2.13%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 19:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -4.21%E -2.13%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 13:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.18%E -2.64%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 22:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.18%E -2.64%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -5.18%E -2.64%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 19:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.50%E -2.43%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-18 22:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.96%EV -5.02%E -2.73%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.04%EV -3.73%E -1.87%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 22:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -2.28%E -1.13%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -2.28%E -1.13%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 13:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-18 13:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.70%E -2.38%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-18 23:18 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-18 19:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.66%E -2.90%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-18 19:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.53%E -3.02%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.60%E -3.98%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.08%E -3.93%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.24%E -1.62%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-18 22:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.08%E -3.93%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.08%E -4.25%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.84%EV -12.24%E -7.20%K -17.49%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.16%EV -11.47%E -6.27%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-05-18 22:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.50% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.50% | 0.1% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.88% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 49.12% | 0.3% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 0.6% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61% | 0.8% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61% | 0.8% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61% | 0.8% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 51.65% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.35% | 1.4% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14% | 3.3% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14% | 3.3% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14% | 3.3% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.02% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.14% | 3.3% | 2026-05-18 23:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.81% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.17% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.02% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 23:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.46% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.28% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.15% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.57% | 4.7% | 2026-05-18 23:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.71% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.38% | 4.16I 24.04%NM 22.91% | 4.9% | 2026-05-18 21:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.12% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.12% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 23:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.12% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.12% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.87% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.01% | 5.2% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.08% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.94% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.18% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.75% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07% | 6.4% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.66% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.97% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38% | 6.9% | 2026-05-18 04:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.14% | 7.5% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 23:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24% | 7.6% | 2026-05-18 23:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.33% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.97% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70% | 8.2% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.04% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 35.89% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.07% | 12.4% | 2026-05-18 23:20 |