The School of Odds
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Boston Bruins v Washington Capitals

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 17:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Bruins (Local)

Prediction 54.31%1.84fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.59%54.26%56.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.751.771.8063.29%57.06%56.50%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Capitals (Visit)

Prediction 45.69%2.19fair odd
EV +1.42%
Edge +0.641%
Kelly +1.17%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.22%45.41%45.74%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.092.102.2250.76%47.74%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Bruins (Local): 54.31%; Washington Capitals (Visit): 45.69%. For Washington Capitals (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.42%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -8.21%E -4.86%K -11.90%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV +1.42%E +0.641%K +1.17%G +0.017%4.2%2026-03-07 17:20
Bally Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -6.58%E -3.83%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -0.862%E -0.397%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 17:34
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -6.58%E -3.83%K -9.14%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -0.862%E -0.397%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-07 17:35
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -7.12%E -4.17%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -1.32%E -0.611%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 17:29
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.57%EV -2.78%E -1.55%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.43%EV -1.78%E -0.826%K -1.54%G +0.000%2.4%2026-03-07 17:34
Bet Right🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -2.69%E -1.26%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Bovada🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.15%E -1.48%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 17:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.49%E -3.16%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -3.60%E -1.71%K -3.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.23%E -1.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 17:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.23%E -1.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-07 17:34
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Paddy Power🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
GTbets🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:35
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
BetAnything🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Everygame🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:35
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 17:34
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-07 17:34
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.04%E -3.49%K -8.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 17:34
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.12%E -4.17%K -10.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.06%E -1.93%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-07 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -3.32%E -1.87%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -5.89%E -2.86%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-07 17:34
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -5.89%E -2.86%K -5.55%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-07 17:34
BetUS🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.23%E -1.24%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-07 17:34
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 17:35
NordicBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 17:34
Betsson🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.86%E -2.18%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 17:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 17:29
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.95%E -2.83%K -6.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-07 17:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.49%E -3.16%K -7.42%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.34%E -3.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-07 17:33
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.49%EV -14.18%E -8.98%K -24.45%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.51%EV -10.00%E -5.08%K -10.31%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-07 17:31
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-03-07 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%0.5%2026-03-07 17:35
Novig◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.38%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.62%0.7%2026-03-07 17:34
ProphetX◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.38%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.62%0.7%2026-03-07 17:35
Matchbook◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%0.9%2026-03-07 17:35
Polymarket◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.0%2026-03-07 17:34
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.0%2026-03-07 17:35
BetOpenly◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.54%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.46%1.5%2026-03-07 17:29
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%2.0%2026-03-07 17:34

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 17:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 17:34
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 17:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.64%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.37%2.8%2026-03-07 17:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.34%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.76%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%3.9%2026-03-07 17:29
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.66%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.79%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.55%4.6%2026-03-07 17:29
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.86%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.38%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.76%4.6%2026-03-07 17:29
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%5.0%2026-03-07 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%5.0%2026-03-07 17:34
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%5.0%2026-03-07 17:34
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.51%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.07%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%5.0%2026-03-07 17:34
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.08%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.45%6.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.92%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%6.6%2026-03-07 17:34
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-03-07 17:35
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.68%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.19%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%7.6%2026-03-07 17:34
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.72%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%8.9%2026-03-07 17:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.84%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.21%9.1%2026-03-07 17:31
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%9.2%2026-03-07 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 42.66%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.96%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-03-07 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.80%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.79%14.0%2026-03-07 17:35