The School of Odds
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Boston Bruins v Toronto Maple Leafs

Kickoff: 2026-03-24 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boston Bruins (Local)

Prediction 64.44%1.55fair odd
EV -1.41%
Edge -0.920%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%64.20%64.49%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.501.501.5373.53%66.80%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit)

Prediction 35.56%2.81fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.803%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%35.80%35.51%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.472.642.652.7540.49%37.87%37.74%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boston Bruins (Local): 64.44%; Toronto Maple Leafs (Visit): 35.56%. For Boston Bruins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.53, with an expected value of -1.41%; they did not produce positive expected value.

21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Everygame🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-24 23:00
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 22:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 23:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-24 22:59
NordicBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -10.39%E -4.12%K -6.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 23:00
Betsson🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -10.39%E -4.12%K -6.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 22:59
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -1.41%E -0.920%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -11.10%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 22:59
ReBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.20%EV -2.05%E -1.35%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.80%EV -7.19%E -2.75%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-24 22:54
FanDuel🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -2.05%E -1.35%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-24 22:59
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -2.05%E -1.35%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -9.32%E -3.66%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-24 22:59
TAB🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.05%E -1.35%K -3.95%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -11.10%E -4.44%K -7.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-24 22:59
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.55%EV -2.70%E -1.79%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.45%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-24 23:00
GTbets🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -2.70%E -1.79%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-24 22:59
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -2.70%E -1.79%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-24 22:59
LowVig.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 22:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 22:59
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-24 23:00
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-24 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-24 23:00
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-24 22:59
MyBookie.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-24 22:59
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.24%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.76%EV -8.25%E -3.20%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-24 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.32%E -3.66%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-24 23:00
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.34%E -2.23%K -6.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -9.32%E -3.66%K -6.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-24 22:59
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-24 22:59
Caesars🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.98%E -2.67%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-24 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-24 22:59
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-24 22:59
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-24 23:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-24 22:59
BetAnything🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -3.99%E -1.48%K -2.35%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-24 23:00
Fliff🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.77%E -2.18%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-24 22:59
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-24 22:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.63%E -3.13%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.54%E -2.90%K -4.71%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-24 22:59
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.27%E -3.59%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-24 22:59
Bally Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -5.27%E -3.59%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-24 22:59
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.56%E -4.53%K -14.58%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -2.21%E -0.803%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-24 22:58
NetBet (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.49%EV -12.36%E -9.09%K -34.34%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 35.51%EV -12.17%E -4.93%K -8.28%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-24 22:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.46%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.54%-0.2%2026-03-24 22:59
Novig◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.97%2.77I 36.10%NM 36.03%0.2%2026-03-24 22:59
ProphetX◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%0.6%2026-03-24 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%0.9%2026-03-24 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.55%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.45%0.9%2026-03-24 22:59
Polymarket◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-03-24 23:00
Matchbook◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.87%2.74I 36.50%NM 36.13%1.0%2026-03-24 23:00
Kalshi◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.1%2026-03-24 23:00
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 63.36%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64%1.8%2026-03-24 22:59

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-24 22:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-24 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-24 22:59
Svenska Spel🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 54.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.56%3.1%2026-03-24 22:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.71%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.86%4.0%2026-03-24 22:59
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.81%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%4.7%2026-03-24 22:59
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.18%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.75%4.53I 22.08%NM 21.08%4.7%2026-03-24 22:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.88%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.67%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.45%4.8%2026-03-24 22:59
Unibet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.2%2026-03-24 23:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.2%2026-03-24 22:59
Casumo🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.2%2026-03-24 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.02%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.2%2026-03-24 23:00
TABtouch🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.00%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-03-24 23:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.17%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.28%6.8%2026-03-24 22:59
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%7.2%2026-03-24 23:00
LeoVegas🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.98%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%7.7%2026-03-24 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.13%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.47%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%8.7%2026-03-24 22:58
Codere (IT)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%8.8%2026-03-24 22:59
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.94%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.09%9.1%2026-03-24 22:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.44%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.81%9.2%2026-03-24 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.31%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.46%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.24%11.0%2026-03-24 22:48