The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TPS v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS (Local)

Prediction 57.67%1.73fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.809%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.15%57.78%57.27%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.641.651.7163.69%61.00%60.61%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 42.33%2.36fair odd
EV -0.103%
Edge -0.044%
Kelly -0.076%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.51%42.22%42.73%43.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.182.232.202.3645.87%44.94%45.45%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS (Local): 57.67%; Ilves (Visit): 42.33%. For Ilves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.362. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.360, with an expected value of -0.103%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -1.38%E -0.809%K -1.95%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -7.30%E -3.33%K -6.13%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 12:25
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.11%E -1.85%K -4.58%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-20 12:25
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 14:00
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 13:55
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 13:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 10:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 10:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-20 10:45
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.84%E -2.94%K -7.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.76%E -2.12%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 15:20
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -6.57%E -4.06%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -0.103%E -0.044%K -0.076%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-20 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.57%E -4.06%K -10.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -4.76%E -2.12%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-20 15:24
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -0.527%E -0.224%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-20 15:20
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 10:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 10:45
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.88%E -3.13%K -5.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-20 10:45
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.46%E -6.02%K -16.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.76%E -2.12%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-20 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73%1.5%2026-10-20 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94%1.9%2026-10-20 15:25
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%8.4%2026-10-20 15:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%3.0%2026-10-20 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%3.0%2026-10-20 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%3.0%2026-10-20 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.51%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.61%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.88%3.1%2026-10-20 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.76%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%5.6%2026-10-20 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%6.1%2026-10-20 13:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%6.1%2026-10-20 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%6.1%2026-10-20 13:55
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.47%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%6.1%2026-10-20 13:55
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%6.2%2026-10-20 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%9.0%2026-10-20 14:35
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%10.0%2026-10-20 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%10.6%2026-10-20 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.85%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.26%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%13.2%2026-10-20 15:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.36%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.29%16.0%2026-10-20 15:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 44.87%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.68%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.45%18.5%2026-10-20 15:19