The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TPS v Ässät

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TPS (Local)

Prediction 61.02%1.64fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.49%61.17%60.89%64.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.531.6069.44%65.23%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ässät (Visit)

Prediction 38.98%2.57fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.514%
Kelly +0.835%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.64%38.83%39.11%40.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.502.6042.55%40.33%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TPS (Local): 61.02%; Ässät (Visit): 38.98%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.46%E -5.64%K -16.93%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +1.34%E +0.514%K +0.835%G +0.011%5.1%2026-03-14 14:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.12%E -8.42%K -27.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.34%E +0.514%K +0.835%G +0.011%7.9%2026-03-14 06:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.12%E -8.42%K -27.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.34%E +0.514%K +0.835%G +0.011%7.9%2026-03-14 06:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.12%E -8.42%K -27.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.34%E +0.514%K +0.835%G +0.011%7.9%2026-03-14 06:30
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -12.12%E -8.42%K -27.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +1.34%E +0.514%K +0.835%G +0.011%7.9%2026-03-14 06:29
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -6.63%E -4.34%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -1.78%E -0.707%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 14:30
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -4.19%E -2.67%K -7.35%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -2.56%E -1.02%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 11:35
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.63%E -4.34%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.56%E -1.02%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 11:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.63%E -4.34%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.56%E -1.02%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.63%E -4.34%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.56%E -1.02%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 10:40
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -2.97%E -1.87%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -5.68%E -2.35%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 14:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.80%E -3.08%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -6.46%E -2.69%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 11:35
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.58%E -2.27%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 06:29
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -3.58%E -2.27%K -6.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -7.24%E -3.04%K -5.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 06:30
BetRivers🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.36%E -1.48%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.41%E -3.58%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 22:44
betPARX🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.36%E -1.48%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.41%E -3.58%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 22:45
Bally Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.36%E -1.48%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.41%E -3.58%K -6.23%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 22:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-03-14 14:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%6.0%2026-03-14 14:55
Smarkets◎1.53I 65.36%NM 60.67%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.33%7.7%2026-03-14 14:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.14%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.27%3.0%2026-03-14 06:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%3.3%2026-03-14 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%3.3%2026-03-14 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.94%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%3.3%2026-03-14 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.64%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.70%4.9%2026-03-14 11:35
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.30%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%6.2%2026-03-14 14:45
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%6.8%2026-03-14 11:30
Grosvenor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%6.8%2026-03-14 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%6.8%2026-03-14 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%6.8%2026-03-14 11:30
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%8.8%2026-03-14 11:30
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.03%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%9.0%2026-03-14 11:30
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.70%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%9.9%2026-03-14 11:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.69%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.26%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%10.6%2026-03-14 11:35
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.47%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%11.5%2026-03-14 11:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.81%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.17%15.1%2026-03-14 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.70%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.37%16.1%2026-03-14 11:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.56%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.21%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.23%17.0%2026-03-14 14:36