The School of Odds
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Sport v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sport (Local)

Prediction 20.12%4.97fair odd
EV +4.62%
Edge +0.889%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.24%19.96%20.14%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.744.705.2022.22%21.09%21.28%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 79.88%1.25fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -15.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.95%80.04%79.86%81.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.181.181.2186.96%85.07%84.75%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 20.12%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 79.88%. For Sport (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.97. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.62%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +4.62%E +0.889%K +1.10%G +0.051%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -7.34%E -6.33%K -45.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 11:50
betPARX🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +4.62%E +0.889%K +1.10%G +0.051%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -7.34%E -6.33%K -45.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 11:50
Bally Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +4.62%E +0.889%K +1.10%G +0.051%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -7.34%E -6.33%K -45.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-28 11:50
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV +0.597%E +0.119%K +0.149%G +0.001%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -8.14%E -7.08%K -54.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 12:20
theScore Bet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -3.43%E -0.714%K -0.902%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.74%E -4.87%K -31.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 12:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.43%E -0.933%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.74%E -4.87%K -31.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-28 11:30
DraftKings🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -5.44%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.34%E -2.76%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-28 11:35
NordicBet🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -5.44%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.94%E -4.15%K -26.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 11:20
Betsson🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -5.44%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.94%E -4.15%K -26.01%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 11:00
Pinnacle🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -5.44%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.74%E -4.87%K -31.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-28 11:50
Neds🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -8.14%E -7.08%K -54.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 12:20
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -8.14%E -7.08%K -54.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -8.14%E -7.08%K -54.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 12:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -7.45%E -1.62%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -8.14%E -7.08%K -54.25%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-28 11:50
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 01:44
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 01:59
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 01:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -9.46%E -2.10%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.14%E -3.45%K -20.72%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-28 01:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%5.1%2026-02-28 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 16.67%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.33%11.1%2026-02-28 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.40I 18.52%NM 16.67%1.08I 92.59%NM 83.33%11.1%2026-02-28 14:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.62%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%2.9%2026-02-28 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.62%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%2.9%2026-02-28 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%1.32I 75.76%NM 73.62%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.95%2.9%2026-02-28 11:50
Coolbet🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.52%1.39I 71.94%NM 69.83%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.65%3.0%2026-02-28 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.66%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%4.9%2026-02-28 11:50
Unibet (SE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-28 11:50
Grosvenor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-28 11:50
Casumo🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-28 11:50
Unibet (NL)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.72%6.1%2026-02-28 11:50
1xBet🎯8.70I 11.49%NM 10.81%1.27I 78.74%NM 74.03%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.16%6.4%2026-02-28 11:35
Tipico (DE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.87%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.86%8.7%2026-02-28 13:00
LeoVegas🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.89%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%9.1%2026-02-28 11:50
Betway🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%9.4%2026-02-28 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.89%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.99%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.12%10.8%2026-02-28 12:20
Everygame🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.70%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%11.6%2026-02-28 13:35
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%12.5%2026-02-28 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.41%1.26I 79.37%NM 68.63%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.96%15.6%2026-02-28 12:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯6.30I 15.87%NM 13.68%1.26I 79.37%NM 68.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.95%16.1%2026-02-28 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 13.72%1.26I 79.37%NM 68.04%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.24%16.6%2026-02-28 14:34