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Sport v KalPa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sport (Local)
Prediction 16.79%5.96fair odd
EV +4.95%
Edge +0.792%
Kelly +0.942%
Growth +0.047%
assuming max odds 6.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.36%16.84%16.90%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.705.796.2521.74%17.56%17.27%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
KalPa (Visit)
Prediction 64.02%1.56fair odd
EV -3.97%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -7.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.07%64.01%63.93%67.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.421.5074.07%70.62%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.19%5.21fair odd
EV +11.29%
Edge +1.95%
Kelly +2.35%
Growth +0.265%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.60%19.16%19.17%21.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.145.055.8023.81%19.44%19.80%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sport (Local): 16.79%; KalPa (Visit): 64.02%; Draw: 19.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.21. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.29%.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.95%E +0.792%K +0.942%G +0.047% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.78%EV -8.45%E -5.91%K -19.65%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.71%EV +11.29%E +1.95%K +2.35%G +0.265% | 3.2% | 2026-03-04 14:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.95%E +0.792%K +0.942%G +0.047% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.78%EV -8.45%E -5.91%K -19.65%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.71%EV +11.29%E +1.95%K +2.35%G +0.265% | 3.2% | 2026-03-04 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.51%EV +4.95%E +0.792%K +0.942%G +0.047% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.78%EV -8.45%E -5.91%K -19.65%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.71%EV +11.29%E +1.95%K +2.35%G +0.265% | 3.2% | 2026-03-04 14:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +2.43%E +0.398%K +0.476%G +0.012% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -11.65%E -8.44%K -30.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +7.45%E +1.33%K +1.62%G +0.121% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +2.43%E +0.398%K +0.476%G +0.012% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -11.65%E -8.44%K -30.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +7.45%E +1.33%K +1.62%G +0.121% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 14:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +2.43%E +0.398%K +0.476%G +0.012% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -11.65%E -8.44%K -30.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +7.45%E +1.33%K +1.62%G +0.121% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 14:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.36%EV +2.43%E +0.398%K +0.476%G +0.012% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.90%EV -11.65%E -8.44%K -30.66%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV +7.45%E +1.33%K +1.62%G +0.121% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 14:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.75%EV -2.61%E -0.450%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.65%EV -13.57%E -10.05%K -38.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV +5.53%E +1.01%K +1.23%G +0.068% | 9.5% | 2026-03-04 14:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.78I 17.30%NM 16.27%EV -2.94%E -0.509%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -7.81%E -5.42%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.44%EV -2.14%E -0.420%K -0.523%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-03 18:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.80%EV +3.27%E +0.532%K +0.635%G +0.021% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.77%EV -3.97%E -2.65%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.43%EV -4.06%E -0.812%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 13:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.94%EV -5.97%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.09%EV -5.25%E -3.55%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.97%EV -4.06%E -0.812%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 12:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV -4.29%E -0.752%K -0.912%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -10.37%E -7.41%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -4.06%E -0.812%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-04 06:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -16.04%E -3.21%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.38%EV -8.45%E -5.91%K -19.65%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.50%EV -5.98%E -1.22%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-03-04 12:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -11.84%E -2.26%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.39%EV -7.81%E -5.42%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.22%EV -8.86%E -1.87%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-04 12:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.76%EV -22.76%E -4.95%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 62.07%EV -11.01%E -7.92%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.17%EV -13.66%E -3.03%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 15.9% | 2026-03-04 12:20 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 17.93%EV -17.72%E -3.62%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.32%EV -9.73%E -6.90%K -23.73%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 19.75%EV -14.62%E -3.28%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-04 13:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 17.96%EV -18.56%E -3.83%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.23%EV -10.37%E -7.41%K -25.93%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.80%EV -15.57%E -3.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-03-04 12:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.72%EV -3.45%E -0.600%K -0.726%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.76%EV -7.81%E -5.42%K -17.75%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -19.41%E -4.62%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-04 12:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40% | 4.2% | 2026-03-02 14:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15% | 4.5% | 2026-03-04 12:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 14:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 14:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 09:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 10:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 09:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 09:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 10:58 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 11:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.03% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.97% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 16:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 13:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38% | 7.3% | 2026-03-04 12:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25% | 8.4% | 2026-03-04 12:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68% | 8.6% | 2026-03-04 12:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68% | 8.6% | 2026-03-02 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68% | 8.6% | 2026-03-02 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68% | 8.6% | 2026-03-02 20:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68% | 8.6% | 2026-03-02 20:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 98.0% | 2026-03-03 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00% | 98.0% | 2026-03-03 20:55 |