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Pelicans v KalPa

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pelicans (Local)

Prediction 41.61%2.40fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.10%41.77%41.51%42.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.232.3048.78%45.27%44.84%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KalPa (Visit)

Prediction 34.59%2.89fair odd
EV +2.05%
Edge +0.695%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.78%34.43%34.77%35.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.742.702.9540.82%36.49%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.79%4.20fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.596%
Kelly -0.789%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%23.80%23.72%24.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.853.804.1027.78%26.00%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pelicans (Local): 41.61%; KalPa (Visit): 34.59%; Draw: 23.79%. For KalPa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.89. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.05%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -5.12%E -2.25%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV +2.05%E +0.695%K +1.05%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -5.12%E -2.25%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV +2.05%E +0.695%K +1.05%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -5.12%E -2.25%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.78%EV +2.05%E +0.695%K +1.05%G +0.022%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.80%EV -7.20%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 15:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.19%EV -4.29%E -1.87%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.24%EV +1.01%E +0.347%K +0.527%G +0.005%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.57%EV -6.01%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-09 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -7.20%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -1.41%E -0.495%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 15:15
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -7.20%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -1.41%E -0.495%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -7.20%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -1.41%E -0.495%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 15:20
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.21%EV -7.20%E -3.23%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.02%EV -1.41%E -0.495%K -0.762%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -9.58%E -2.52%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.52%EV -5.54%E -2.44%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.60%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.60%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -4.82%E -1.21%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 13:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -12.61%E -6.01%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.94%EV -6.60%E -2.44%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -14.34%E -3.98%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-09 15:15
1xBet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.49%EV -5.54%E -2.44%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.54%EV -8.33%E -3.14%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -2.45%E -0.596%K -0.789%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-09 15:25
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -8.45%E -3.84%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.78%EV -10.06%E -3.87%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -10.77%E -2.87%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-09 09:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.32%EV -11.79%E -4.62%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.80%EV -6.01%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-09 09:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.25%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.78%EV -11.79%E -4.62%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 15:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.16%EV -10.53%E -4.90%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.12%EV -12.83%E -5.09%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.72%EV -11.25%E -3.02%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-09 15:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.83%EV -14.69%E -7.17%K -13.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.00%EV -15.25%E -6.22%K -10.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.17%EV -11.96%E -3.23%K -4.43%G +0.000%16.6%2026-09-09 09:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%4.0%2026-09-09 13:55
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%4.1%2026-09-09 09:39
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%4.3%2026-09-09 09:44
Pinnacle🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%4.8%2026-09-09 10:44
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-09-09 15:15
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-09-09 15:15
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%5.0%2026-09-09 15:20
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%5.3%2026-09-09 13:55
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-09 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-09 11:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%5.6%2026-09-09 11:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%6.5%2026-09-09 09:44
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-09-08 06:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-09-08 06:25
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%7.8%2026-09-08 06:25
Smarkets◎1.73I 57.80%NM 53.49%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.51%8.1%2026-09-09 10:00