The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lukko v Pelicans

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 76.04%1.32fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -9.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.38%76.11%76.00%77.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.211.251.251.2882.64%79.96%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pelicans (Visit)

Prediction 23.96%4.17fair odd
EV +1.11%
Edge +0.264%
Kelly +0.345%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.28%23.89%24.00%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.843.954.2228.57%26.06%25.32%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 76.04%; Pelicans (Visit): 23.96%. For Pelicans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.17. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.22, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.11%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.72%EV -7.99%E -6.60%K -38.06%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.28%EV +1.11%E +0.264%K +0.345%G +0.004%6.3%2026-02-28 13:00
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.05%EV -4.19%E -3.33%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-28 10:15
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 10:45
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 10:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.16%E -1.04%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 10:55
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 10:55
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 10:45
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 10:55
Betsson🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 11:20
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -5.36%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-28 11:20
theScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -2.67%E -2.09%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.4%2026-02-28 10:56
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.71%E -4.61%K -23.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.95%E -2.36%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-28 10:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -3.43%E -2.70%K -12.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -16.14%E -4.61%K -6.46%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-28 10:54
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.14%E -4.61%K -6.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 07:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.14%E -4.61%K -6.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 07:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.14%E -4.61%K -6.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 07:49
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.95%E -3.96%K -19.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.14%E -4.61%K -6.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-28 07:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-02-28 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-02-28 14:50
Smarkets◎1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%7.8%2026-02-28 14:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.48%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.14%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.38%3.2%2026-02-28 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.09%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.80%3.5%2026-02-28 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.09%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.80%3.5%2026-02-28 10:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 67.09%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.10%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.80%3.5%2026-02-28 10:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.00%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.62%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.38%4.6%2026-02-28 10:45
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.27%6.02I 16.61%NM 15.63%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.10%6.3%2026-02-28 13:00
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.69%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%6.3%2026-02-28 10:45
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.69%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%6.3%2026-02-28 10:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.69%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%6.3%2026-02-28 10:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 66.69%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.21%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.10%6.3%2026-02-28 10:45
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%8.7%2026-02-28 10:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%9.0%2026-02-28 11:50
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.19%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%9.4%2026-02-28 10:45
Everygame🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.63%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.48%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.90%10.5%2026-02-28 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.93%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.67%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.40%10.9%2026-02-28 10:45
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%13.7%2026-02-28 10:42
Winamax (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 62.92%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.34%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.74%16.0%2026-02-28 10:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 62.43%4.85I 20.62%NM 17.76%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.81%16.1%2026-02-28 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 62.34%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.79%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.86%17.1%2026-02-28 14:34