The School of Odds
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Lukko v Kiekko-Espoo

Kickoff: 2026-03-11 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 68.33%1.46fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.60%
Kelly -5.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.97%68.30%68.33%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.381.381.4374.07%72.49%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kiekko-Espoo (Visit)

Prediction 31.67%3.16fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.587%
Kelly -0.867%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%31.70%31.67%33.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.962.923.1035.09%33.76%34.19%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 68.33%; Kiekko-Espoo (Visit): 31.67%. For Kiekko-Espoo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -1.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -2.29%E -1.60%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-11 07:35
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.97%E -2.09%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -4.99%E -1.66%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-11 15:15
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 11:05
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.57%E -2.23%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 11:05
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 01:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.34%E -3.10%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-11 01:50
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.13%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 11:35
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.13%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 12:25
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.71%E -4.13%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.40%E -1.12%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-11 12:25
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -5.71%E -4.13%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -3.72%E -1.22%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-11 15:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.71%E -4.13%K -15.02%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.74%E -3.42%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-11 15:15
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.82%E -0.587%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -1.82%E -0.587%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-11 16:25
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -7.07%E -5.20%K -19.65%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -8.79%E -3.05%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-11 01:50
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 17:45
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.74%K -22.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.15%E -2.81%K -4.29%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-10 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%1.7%2026-03-11 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.72%1.7%2026-03-11 16:25
Smarkets◎1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%8.2%2026-03-11 15:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.0%2026-03-11 11:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.0%2026-03-11 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.79%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.11%3.0%2026-03-11 12:25
Coolbet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.66%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.06%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.27%3.2%2026-03-11 11:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.27%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.74%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.99%4.5%2026-03-11 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-03-11 11:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-03-11 12:01
Grosvenor🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-03-11 11:35
Casumo🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%5.8%2026-03-11 12:00
1xBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.05%4.09I 24.45%NM 23.02%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%6.2%2026-03-11 16:20
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.00%6.9%2026-03-11 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.61%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.95%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%8.5%2026-03-11 15:20
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.08%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.96%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.96%9.7%2026-03-11 11:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%10.5%2026-03-11 15:15
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.52%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.42%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.06%11.2%2026-03-11 16:24
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.92%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.54%15.2%2026-03-11 16:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 55.22%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.97%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.81%16.1%2026-03-11 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.53%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.65%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.83%16.8%2026-03-11 16:06