The School of Odds
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Lukko v JYP

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lukko (Local)

Prediction 45.02%2.22fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.60%45.23%44.98%47.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.042.062.1752.08%49.08%48.54%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

JYP (Visit)

Prediction 31.82%3.14fair odd
EV +0.243%
Edge +0.077%
Kelly +0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.73%31.64%31.97%32.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.973.053.1537.74%33.71%32.79%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.15%4.32fair odd
EV +0.249%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.075%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.71%23.13%23.05%23.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.014.004.3327.03%24.93%25.00%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lukko (Local): 45.02%; JYP (Visit): 31.82%; Draw: 23.15%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.249%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.66%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV +0.243%E +0.077%K +0.113%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-09 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.66%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV +0.243%E +0.077%K +0.113%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-09 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.66%EV -4.55%E -2.15%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.73%EV +0.243%E +0.077%K +0.113%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-09 14:35
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.76%EV -2.30%E -1.06%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.84%EV -2.94%E -0.964%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.40%EV -3.92%E -0.944%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-09 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.25%E -3.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -2.94%E -0.964%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:35
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.25%E -3.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -2.94%E -0.964%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.25%E -3.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -2.94%E -0.964%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:36
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.65%EV -7.25%E -3.52%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -2.94%E -0.964%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 14:36
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.47%EV -10.85%E -5.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -2.94%E -0.964%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.71%EV +0.249%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.79%EV -11.30%E -5.74%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.73%EV -4.53%E -1.51%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -6.35%E -3.05%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.12%E -2.08%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.08%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.78%EV -12.65%E -6.52%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.84%EV -8.35%E -2.90%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.02%E -3.16%K -4.29%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-09 14:35
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.81%EV -7.70%E -3.76%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -9.30%E -3.26%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-09 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.41%EV -10.85%E -5.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.11%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -7.39%E -1.85%K -2.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-09 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.60%EV -10.85%E -5.48%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.54%EV -10.90%E -3.89%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -14.34%E -3.87%K -5.31%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-09 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.88%EV -11.30%E -5.74%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.15%EV -12.49%E -4.54%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -10.86%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-09 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 44.98%EV -13.55%E -7.06%K -14.73%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.59%EV -15.67%E -5.91%K -9.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.43%EV -10.86%E -2.82%K -3.81%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-09 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%3.6%2026-09-09 13:21
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%4.0%2026-09-09 13:39
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%4.1%2026-09-09 15:25
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%4.8%2026-09-09 13:30
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-09-09 12:45
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-09-09 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-09-09 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-09-09 11:39
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-09-09 13:14
Bally Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-09-09 13:14
betPARX🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%5.4%2026-09-09 13:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%6.1%2026-09-09 13:20
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-09-09 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-09-09 11:45
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-09-09 11:45
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-09-09 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%8.0%2026-09-09 11:45
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%8.5%2026-09-09 13:20