The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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KooKoo v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KooKoo (Local)

Prediction 46.07%2.17fair odd
EV -0.957%
Edge -0.445%
Kelly -0.832%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.99%46.24%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.032.012.1551.28%49.25%49.75%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 53.93%1.85fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.01%53.76%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.761.761.8058.48%56.71%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KooKoo (Local): 46.07%; Ilves (Visit): 53.93%. For KooKoo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.957%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -0.957%E -0.445%K -0.832%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -7.77%E -4.55%K -10.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 13:15
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.34%E -1.10%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 12:29
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.34%E -1.10%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 12:30
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -2.34%E -1.10%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -6.70%E -3.87%K -9.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-02-28 12:31
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.26%E -1.55%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.54%E -2.56%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-28 12:30
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.56%E -2.71%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.92%E -1.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-02-28 10:15
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.56%E -2.71%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.16%E -3.54%K -8.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-28 12:20
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.00%E -2.25%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 10:25
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -6.95%E -3.44%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -4.00%E -2.25%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.7%2026-02-28 10:25
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.87%E -3.93%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.92%E -1.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 22:04
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.87%E -3.93%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.92%E -1.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.87%E -3.93%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.92%E -1.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 22:08
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.87%E -3.93%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.92%E -1.62%K -3.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 22:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.87%E -3.93%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.54%E -2.56%K -5.89%G +0.000%6.5%2026-02-28 08:14
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.17%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 07:49
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.17%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 07:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.17%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 07:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.17%E -5.22%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.62%E -3.21%K -7.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-02-28 07:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 45.92%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.08%9.4%2026-02-28 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%10.0%2026-02-28 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%10.0%2026-02-28 14:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.67%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.44%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.89%3.0%2026-02-28 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.55%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%3.1%2026-02-28 12:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.55%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%3.1%2026-02-28 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.89%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.55%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.56%3.1%2026-02-28 12:31
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.11%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.12%5.5%2026-02-28 10:15
1xBet🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 34.48%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.38%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%6.2%2026-02-28 14:45
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-02-28 12:30
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-02-28 12:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-02-28 12:31
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%6.5%2026-02-28 12:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.75%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.8%2026-02-28 10:15
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.71%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%8.9%2026-02-28 12:29
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%8.9%2026-02-28 10:15
Everygame🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%10.6%2026-02-28 12:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.42%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%10.7%2026-02-28 10:15
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%12.7%2026-02-28 10:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.24%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.11%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%15.8%2026-02-28 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.21%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-02-28 10:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 34.98%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.41%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.61%16.7%2026-02-28 14:34