The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kärpät v Sport

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 71.30%1.40fair odd
EV -0.898%
Edge -0.646%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.04%70.99%71.40%71.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.321.321.3976.92%75.66%75.76%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sport (Visit)

Prediction 28.70%3.48fair odd
EV -3.84%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.27%29.01%28.60%30.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.273.293.3532.26%30.59%30.40%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 71.30%; Sport (Visit): 28.70%. For Kärpät (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.39, with an expected value of -0.898%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -0.898%E -0.646%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -11.02%E -3.55%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-18 02:44
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.75%EV -3.04%E -2.23%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.25%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-18 08:35
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.46%E -3.33%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.71%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-18 07:00
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.18%E -3.89%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.28%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 02:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.18%E -3.89%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.28%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 02:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.18%E -3.89%K -15.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.28%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-18 02:50
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.89%E -4.46%K -18.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.84%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 04:24
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.89%E -4.46%K -18.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.84%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 04:24
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.89%E -4.46%K -18.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.84%E -1.15%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-18 04:30
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.60%E -5.04%K -21.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.28%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-18 04:30
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.52%EV -6.60%E -5.04%K -21.30%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.48%EV -5.57%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 03:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -6.60%E -5.04%K -21.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -8.15%E -2.55%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.31%E -5.63%K -24.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.71%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 05:40
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.31%E -5.63%K -24.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.71%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 05:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.31%E -5.63%K -24.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.71%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 05:39
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.31%E -5.63%K -24.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.71%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-18 05:40
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.31%E -5.63%K -24.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -8.15%E -2.55%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 02:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%10.9%2026-09-18 04:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.94%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.62%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%3.0%2026-09-18 06:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.42%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.68%3.7%2026-09-18 04:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.42%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.68%3.7%2026-09-18 04:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.42%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.91%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.68%3.7%2026-09-18 04:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.48%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.66%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%6.0%2026-09-18 04:29
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%6.2%2026-09-18 04:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%6.2%2026-09-18 04:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%6.2%2026-09-18 04:25
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%6.2%2026-09-18 04:25
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.13%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.65%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%6.2%2026-09-18 03:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.29%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.56%8.8%2026-09-18 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%11.1%2026-09-18 04:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.57%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.99%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.44%11.2%2026-09-18 04:28
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.49%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.84%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%12.9%2026-09-18 04:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 58.80%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.48%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.72%14.9%2026-09-18 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 58.45%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.16%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.39%19.6%2026-09-18 04:30