The School of Odds
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Kärpät v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kärpät (Local)

Prediction 49.18%2.03fair odd
EV -0.656%
Edge -0.325%
Kelly -0.643%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.12%48.97%49.15%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.911.912.0254.64%52.34%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 50.82%1.97fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -3.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.03%50.85%52.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.871.9155.56%53.73%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 49.18%; HIFK (Visit): 50.82%. For Kärpät (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -0.656%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -0.656%E -0.325%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -8.52%E -4.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 11:03
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -0.656%E -0.325%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -8.52%E -4.74%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 11:04
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -4.10%E -2.10%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 11:05
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -4.59%E -2.37%K -4.88%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-14 11:30
DraftKings🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%EV -5.08%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%EV -3.95%E -2.09%K -4.44%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 11:49
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.08%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 11:30
Bally Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.08%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 11:30
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -5.08%E -2.63%K -5.46%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 11:30
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.07%E -3.18%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 06:29
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.07%E -3.18%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 07:33
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.07%E -3.18%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 06:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.07%E -3.18%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.93%E -1.54%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-14 06:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.03%E -4.30%K -9.23%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.97%E -2.66%K -5.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 06:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -9.02%E -4.87%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:29
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -9.02%E -4.87%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -9.02%E -4.87%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:30
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -9.02%E -4.87%K -10.61%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-14 06:29
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.00%E -5.46%K -12.05%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.00%E -3.83%K -8.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-14 06:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%1.3%2026-03-14 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.62%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%1.3%2026-03-14 14:55
Smarkets◎1.87I 53.48%NM 49.60%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.40%7.8%2026-03-14 06:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 36.38%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.39%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.23%3.0%2026-03-14 10:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-03-14 11:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-03-14 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 37.28%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.64%3.2%2026-03-14 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.02%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.80%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.18%5.2%2026-03-14 06:29
Casumo🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-03-14 11:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-03-14 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-03-14 11:30
Grosvenor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%6.7%2026-03-14 11:30
1xBet🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 37.95%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%6.7%2026-03-14 14:10
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%8.3%2026-03-14 06:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%8.9%2026-03-14 13:05
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.32%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.24%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.44%9.4%2026-03-14 11:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.33%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.16%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%11.0%2026-03-14 06:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.24%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.64%16.2%2026-03-14 06:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 37.77%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.62%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.62%16.6%2026-03-14 14:36