The School of Odds
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KalPa v Jukurit

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 59.33%1.69fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.90%59.38%59.21%61.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.551.541.6368.97%64.71%64.94%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jukurit (Visit)

Prediction 20.14%4.97fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +0.722%
Kelly +0.896%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 5.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.85%19.99%20.34%21.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.674.705.1525.00%21.43%21.28%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.53%4.87fair odd
EV +0.598%
Edge +0.122%
Kelly +0.153%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.54%20.62%20.45%21.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.634.604.9023.81%21.61%21.74%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 59.33%; Jukurit (Visit): 20.14%; Draw: 20.53%. For Jukurit (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.97. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.72%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.57%EV -3.29%E -2.02%K -5.22%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.85%EV +3.72%E +0.722%K +0.896%G +0.033%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.58%EV -7.61%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 11:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.18%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +0.697%E +0.139%K +0.174%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%EV +0.598%E +0.122%K +0.153%G +0.001%4.1%2026-09-04 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.18%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +0.697%E +0.139%K +0.174%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%EV +0.598%E +0.122%K +0.153%G +0.001%4.1%2026-09-04 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.18%EV -6.85%E -4.36%K -12.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.21%EV +0.697%E +0.139%K +0.174%G +0.001%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.60%EV +0.598%E +0.122%K +0.153%G +0.001%4.1%2026-09-04 11:20
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -3.33%E -0.694%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -1.45%E -0.303%K -0.383%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 11:20
Grosvenor🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -3.33%E -0.694%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -1.45%E -0.303%K -0.383%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 11:19
Unibet (SE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -3.33%E -0.694%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -1.45%E -0.303%K -0.383%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 11:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -3.33%E -0.694%K -0.877%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.54%EV -1.45%E -0.303%K -0.383%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 11:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.47%EV -9.82%E -6.46%K -18.88%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.55%EV -5.34%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -5.56%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 13:00
1xBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.56%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.41%EV -7.16%E -1.55%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.02%EV -3.51%E -0.746%K -0.948%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.26%E -3.96%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.36%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.36%EV -5.56%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 12:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.07%EV -13.97%E -9.64%K -31.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -7.36%E -1.60%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.68%EV -7.61%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-04 11:20
Betway🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -7.44%E -4.77%K -13.29%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -9.37%E -2.08%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -7.61%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 12:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.55%EV -8.63%E -5.60%K -15.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -12.39%E -2.85%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.73%EV -10.69%E -2.46%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-04 12:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.13%EV -9.82%E -6.46%K -18.88%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.90%EV -13.40%E -3.12%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.97%EV -7.61%E -1.69%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-04 12:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.42%EV -9.22%E -6.03%K -17.40%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -13.40%E -3.12%K -4.06%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -11.72%E -2.73%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-04 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 57.90%EV -11.60%E -7.78%K -23.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.57%EV -19.44%E -4.86%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.54%EV -13.77%E -3.28%K -4.30%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-04 12:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.22%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%4.0%2026-09-04 09:39
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%4.3%2026-09-04 12:54
DraftKings🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%4.4%2026-09-04 11:18
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-09-04 10:54
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-09-04 10:53
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%5.0%2026-09-04 10:53
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%5.3%2026-09-04 09:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-09-04 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-09-04 12:50
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%5.5%2026-09-04 12:50
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.07%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.93%5.7%2026-09-04 10:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-09-04 12:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-09-04 12:54
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-09-04 12:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%7.1%2026-09-04 12:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%7.4%2026-09-04 12:55
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%8.2%2026-09-04 12:50
Smarkets◎1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%8.5%2026-09-04 12:55