The School of Odds
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KalPa v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 44.06%2.27fair odd
EV -0.426%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.338%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.20%43.98%44.16%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.122.102.2648.78%47.08%47.62%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 55.94%1.79fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.55%56.02%55.84%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.711.711.7560.61%58.40%58.48%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 44.06%; Ilves (Visit): 55.94%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.26, with an expected value of -0.426%; they did not produce positive expected value.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -0.426%E -0.188%K -0.338%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -7.70%E -4.67%K -11.84%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 13:45
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.866%E -0.385%K -0.693%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.02%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 09:30
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.866%E -0.385%K -0.693%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.02%E -3.58%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 09:30
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.07%E -1.40%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-11 13:55
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.66%E -1.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-11 07:35
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.10%E -1.20%K -2.81%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-11 13:44
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.66%E -1.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 13:44
Bally Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.66%E -1.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 13:45
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 07:25
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 07:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 07:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.22%E -1.86%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 07:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.48%E -3.56%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.34%E -2.54%K -6.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 07:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -7.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 05:59
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -7.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 06:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -7.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 05:59
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.68%E -4.72%K -9.22%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.90%E -2.88%K -7.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 05:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%8.0%2026-04-11 08:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%8.4%2026-04-11 13:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 40.47%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%8.4%2026-04-11 13:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.90%2.20I 45.45%NM 44.18%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.92%2.9%2026-04-11 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-04-11 13:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-04-11 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.92%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.86%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%3.0%2026-04-11 13:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.53%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.28%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%6.0%2026-04-11 08:05
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-04-11 13:50
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-04-11 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-04-11 13:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%6.2%2026-04-11 13:50
1xBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.61%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.01%6.2%2026-04-11 13:34
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%9.0%2026-04-11 13:50
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.29%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%10.0%2026-04-11 08:04
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%10.6%2026-04-11 07:35
Everygame🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.08%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.76%10.7%2026-04-11 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.90%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-04-11 08:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.96%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.98%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.07%12.4%2026-04-11 13:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.20%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.16%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.65%15.9%2026-04-11 08:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.56%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.14%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.30%15.9%2026-04-11 13:49
Betclic (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.50%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.73%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.77%17.0%2026-04-11 13:36