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KalPa v Ilves

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 43.42%2.30fair odd
EV -0.140%
Edge -0.061%
Kelly -0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.62%43.51%43.10%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.172.102.3047.62%46.12%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ilves (Visit)

Prediction 56.58%1.77fair odd
EV +0.151%
Edge +0.085%
Kelly +0.196%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%56.49%56.90%58.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.681.671.7761.35%59.42%59.88%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 43.42%; Ilves (Visit): 56.58%. For Ilves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.767. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.770, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.151%.

19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.151%E +0.085%K +0.196%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 13:59
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.11%E -1.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 08:45
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.11%E -1.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 08:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.11%E -1.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 09:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.11%E -1.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-05 09:00
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -2.31%E -1.03%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.38%E -2.59%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-06 08:00
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.48%E -2.04%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.94%E -2.94%K -7.27%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 14:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.65%E -3.09%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.22%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-05 09:00
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 05:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-05 05:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 14:00
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.82%E -4.20%K -8.02%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.51%E -3.30%K -8.22%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-06 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.31%E -1.03%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.64%E -4.02%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 08:45
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.31%E -1.03%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.64%E -4.02%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 08:45
BetRivers🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -0.140%E -0.061%K -0.108%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -7.20%E -4.39%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-06 11:00
Bally Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -1.01%E -0.442%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.77%E -4.77%K -12.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 11:00
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -1.01%E -0.442%K -0.788%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -7.77%E -4.77%K -12.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%3.1%2026-04-06 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%6.1%2026-04-06 15:00
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%8.1%2026-04-06 15:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.89%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.55%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%3.0%2026-04-06 12:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.16%3.3%2026-04-06 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.16%3.3%2026-04-06 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.80%2.15I 46.51%NM 45.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.16%3.3%2026-04-06 13:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.37%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%4.5%2026-04-06 08:00
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.57%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.19%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%6.2%2026-04-06 14:00
Casumo🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-04-06 11:00
Grosvenor🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.81%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.15%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%6.5%2026-04-06 11:00
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.02%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%9.2%2026-04-06 11:00
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%10.5%2026-04-06 07:59
Everygame🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%11.1%2026-04-06 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%11.4%2026-04-06 07:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.98%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.26%11.7%2026-04-06 08:00
PMU (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.09%12.3%2026-04-06 11:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.40%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.18%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%13.7%2026-04-06 08:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.68%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.99%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.33%14.8%2026-04-06 07:57
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.08%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.73%15.5%2026-04-06 08:00