The School of Odds
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KalPa v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

KalPa (Local)

Prediction 50.95%1.96fair odd
EV +4.45%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +4.23%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%50.53%50.98%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.861.852.0555.56%53.91%54.05%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 49.05%2.04fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -0.949%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.37%49.47%49.02%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.952.0055.56%52.17%51.28%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: KalPa (Local): 50.95%; HIFK (Visit): 49.05%. For KalPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.45%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV +4.45%E +2.17%K +4.23%G +0.188%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -11.71%E -6.50%K -14.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 10:59
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.69%E -1.41%K -2.95%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.31%E -3.31%K -6.94%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 14:19
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -4.22%E -2.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 14:24
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -4.22%E -2.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 14:24
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -4.22%E -2.24%K -4.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -4.84%E -2.50%K -5.15%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-21 14:19
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.73%E -2.53%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.27%E -4.43%K -9.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-21 14:17
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.24%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 11:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.24%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 11:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.24%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 10:59
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -5.74%E -3.10%K -6.76%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -10.24%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-21 11:00
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -6.76%E -3.70%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -3.37%E -1.71%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 21:50
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -6.76%E -3.70%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.86%E -1.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 22:00
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -6.76%E -3.70%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -3.86%E -1.97%K -4.02%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-20 22:00
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -6.76%E -3.70%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -10.24%E -5.59%K -12.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-21 14:19
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.29%E -4.61%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.90%E -0.949%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 21:50
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.29%E -4.61%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.90%E -0.949%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.29%E -4.61%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.90%E -0.949%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 12:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.29%E -4.61%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.90%E -0.949%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-21 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62%0.8%2026-03-21 14:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.24%1.5%2026-03-21 14:55
Smarkets◎1.84I 54.35%NM 50.54%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.46%7.5%2026-03-21 14:19

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.70%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.46%3.4%2026-03-21 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%3.4%2026-03-21 11:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%3.4%2026-03-21 11:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.01%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.50%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.49%3.4%2026-03-21 11:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%5.0%2026-03-21 14:18
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.4%2026-03-21 10:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.4%2026-03-21 11:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.4%2026-03-21 11:00
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%6.4%2026-03-21 11:00
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.21%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.94%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-03-21 14:30
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.50%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%9.6%2026-03-21 10:25
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%10.0%2026-03-21 14:19
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.85%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%10.8%2026-03-21 11:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.31%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.31%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.38%11.1%2026-03-21 14:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.22%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.22%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.56%16.3%2026-03-21 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.97%2.28I 43.86%NM 37.47%3.48I 28.74%NM 24.55%17.0%2026-03-21 14:34