The School of Odds
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Jukurit v HIFK

Kickoff: 2026-09-09 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jukurit (Local)

Prediction 31.61%3.16fair odd
EV +4.31%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.87%
Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.39%31.26%31.65%33.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.932.953.3037.74%34.10%33.90%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HIFK (Visit)

Prediction 43.54%2.30fair odd
EV -4.21%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -3.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.63%43.80%43.51%45.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.132.2050.00%47.21%46.95%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.85%4.02fair odd
EV -0.594%
Edge -0.149%
Kelly -0.198%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.93%24.85%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.753.804.0028.99%26.65%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jukurit (Local): 31.61%; HIFK (Visit): 43.54%; Draw: 24.85%. For Jukurit (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.31%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.39%EV +4.31%E +1.31%K +1.87%G +0.081%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.75%EV -7.70%E -3.63%K -6.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.87%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-07 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.957%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.957%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.21%EV -2.01%E -0.648%K -0.957%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.98%EV -4.21%E -1.92%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.81%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-09 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.17%E -1.72%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.93%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Grosvenor🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.17%E -1.72%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.93%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Casumo🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.17%E -1.72%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.93%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 15:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -5.17%E -1.72%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.93%EV -6.83%E -3.19%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.74%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-09 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.95%EV -6.75%E -2.29%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.24%EV -5.08%E -2.33%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -5.56%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-09 15:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.23%EV -6.75%E -2.29%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.87%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -8.05%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-09 14:10
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.91%E -3.48%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.54%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.23%EV -9.91%E -3.48%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.06%EV -12.05%E -5.97%K -11.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-09 15:25
1xBet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.13%EV -10.23%E -3.60%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.35%EV -5.52%E -2.54%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -0.594%E -0.149%K -0.198%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 15:25
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.14%EV -11.49%E -4.10%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.86%EV -8.57%E -4.08%K -7.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.53%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 13:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.67%EV -11.49%E -4.10%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.63%EV -9.44%E -4.54%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.70%EV -14.26%E -4.13%K -5.82%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-09 15:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -13.07%E -4.75%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.75%E -5.24%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-09 15:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.09%EV -13.07%E -4.75%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.05%EV -10.75%E -5.24%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.86%EV -11.78%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-09 15:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.56%EV -16.23%E -6.13%K -9.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.14%EV -12.92%E -6.46%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.30%EV -11.78%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-09 15:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%3.9%2026-09-09 15:25
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%4.0%2026-09-09 15:20
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%4.2%2026-09-09 13:20
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-09-09 15:25
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-09-09 15:24
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-09-09 15:24
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%5.0%2026-09-09 14:45
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%5.1%2026-09-09 11:10
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-09-09 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-09-09 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-09-09 11:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%6.4%2026-09-09 15:25
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-09-09 11:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-09-09 11:15
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-09-09 11:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%8.0%2026-09-09 11:15
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%8.3%2026-09-09 15:25