The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Ilves v TPS

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 61.54%1.63fair odd
EV -2.15%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -3.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.35%61.55%61.56%62.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.521.531.5967.57%65.69%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 38.46%2.60fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.754%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.19%38.45%38.44%39.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.422.492.502.5541.32%40.23%40.00%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 61.54%; TPS (Visit): 38.46%. For TPS (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.55, with an expected value of -1.92%; they did not produce positive expected value.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%EV -2.15%E -1.36%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%EV -6.92%E -2.86%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 10:30
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.39%E -2.16%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.84%E -1.54%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-27 10:35
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -4.00%E -2.56%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -6.15%E -2.52%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-27 11:15
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.92%EV -4.62%E -2.98%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.08%EV -3.08%E -1.22%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-27 11:55
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.23%E -3.40%K -9.69%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.61%E -1.86%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-27 11:19
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.84%E -1.54%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 10:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.84%E -1.54%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 10:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.84%E -1.54%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 10:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.85%E -3.82%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-27 10:24
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.08%E -4.69%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -1.92%E -0.754%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 11:54
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.08%E -4.69%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -1.92%E -0.754%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 11:54
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -7.08%E -4.69%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -1.92%E -0.754%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 11:54
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.69%E -5.13%K -15.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.84%E -1.54%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-27 10:15
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -8.92%E -6.03%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 10:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -8.92%E -6.03%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 10:24
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -8.92%E -6.03%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 10:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.34%EV -8.92%E -6.03%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.66%EV -5.77%E -2.35%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 10:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%8.2%2026-09-27 10:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.43%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.83%2.3%2026-09-27 09:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.13%2.9%2026-09-27 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.13%2.9%2026-09-27 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.13%2.9%2026-09-27 11:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.52%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%5.7%2026-09-27 10:34
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.86%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-09-27 11:14
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-09-27 11:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-09-27 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-09-27 11:55
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%6.8%2026-09-27 11:54
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%8.8%2026-09-27 10:19
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.41%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%11.2%2026-09-27 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.48%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.13%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.38%12.5%2026-09-27 11:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.13%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.23%13.1%2026-09-27 11:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 49.01%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.28%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%15.9%2026-09-27 10:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 48.56%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.42%17.0%2026-09-27 10:35