The School of Odds
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Ilves v TPS

2026-09-27 12:00 UTC — Liiga

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 65.20%1.53fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.61%65.08%65.06%66.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5171.43%69.20%69.44%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TPS (Visit)

Prediction 34.80%2.87fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.913%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.73%34.92%34.94%36.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.642.742.752.8037.88%36.45%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ilves (Local): 65.20%; TPS (Visit): 34.80%. For Ilves (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.53. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.51, with an expected value of -1.55%; they do not produce positive expected value.

14 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -1.55%E -1.03%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -8.12%E -3.08%K -4.95%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-25 10:24
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.16%E -2.83%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -3.25%E -1.17%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-25 08:20
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.81%E -3.29%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.04%E -2.24%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-25 08:20
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.46%E -3.77%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -6.04%E -2.24%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 08:10
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.11%E -4.25%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.30%E -1.56%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 12:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.11%E -4.25%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.30%E -1.56%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.11%E -4.25%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.30%E -1.56%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-25 12:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.11%E -4.25%K -13.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.04%E -2.24%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-25 08:34
BetRivers🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.77%E -4.73%K -15.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.56%E -0.913%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 08:10
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.77%E -4.73%K -15.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.56%E -0.913%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 08:09
Bally Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.77%E -4.73%K -15.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -2.56%E -0.913%K -1.42%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 08:10
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -8.72%E -6.23%K -21.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -4.30%E -1.56%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 08:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 64.65%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.35%10.5%2026-09-25 12:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (14)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-09-25 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-09-25 11:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.55%3.1%2026-09-25 11:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.16%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%5.5%2026-09-25 08:09
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.37%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.49%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.14%6.3%2026-09-25 08:30
Grosvenor🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-25 11:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-25 11:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-25 11:15
Casumo🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.78%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.60%6.4%2026-09-25 11:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.84%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.13%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%10.6%2026-09-25 08:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.54%3.63I 27.55%NM 24.78%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.68%11.2%2026-09-25 08:08
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.58%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.72%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.70%12.4%2026-09-25 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 52.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.24%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.25%18.3%2026-09-25 08:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 52.87%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.70%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.42%19.7%2026-09-25 08:25