The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ilves v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-03-10 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ilves (Local)

Prediction 65.89%1.52fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -3.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.44%65.97%65.55%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.441.4971.43%69.90%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 34.11%2.93fair odd
EV +0.622%
Edge +0.211%
Kelly +0.319%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%34.03%34.45%35.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.792.802.9538.17%35.89%35.71%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ilves (Local): 65.89%; HPK (Visit): 34.11%. For HPK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.622%.

17 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +0.622%E +0.211%K +0.319%G +0.002%5.3%2026-03-09 16:15
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +0.622%E +0.211%K +0.319%G +0.002%5.3%2026-03-09 16:15
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +0.622%E +0.211%K +0.319%G +0.002%5.3%2026-03-09 16:14
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.08%E -0.374%K -0.570%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 16:24
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.08%E -0.374%K -0.570%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 16:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.08%E -0.374%K -0.570%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 16:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.75%E -5.54%K -19.38%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -1.08%E -0.374%K -0.570%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-10 16:25
NordicBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.12%E -3.55%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.49%E -1.61%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-10 10:25
Betsson🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.12%E -3.55%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.49%E -1.61%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-10 10:24
theScore Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -2.48%E -1.68%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -6.20%E -2.25%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-10 13:25
Pinnacle🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -3.80%E -2.60%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -7.22%E -2.66%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-10 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -1.82%E -1.22%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -7.91%E -2.93%K -4.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-10 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -4.46%E -3.07%K -9.91%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -9.61%E -3.63%K -5.82%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-10 13:25
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -5.12%E -3.55%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -10.29%E -3.91%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-10 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -5.12%E -3.55%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -10.29%E -3.91%K -6.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-10 14:20
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.12%E -3.55%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.12%E -3.55%K -11.63%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.63%E -4.06%K -6.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-10 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.63%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-03-10 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79%2.7%2026-03-10 16:25
Smarkets◎1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%5.0%2026-03-10 16:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (17)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%2.6%2026-03-10 10:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%2.6%2026-03-10 10:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66%2.6%2026-03-10 10:24
Coolbet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 53.27%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%3.1%2026-03-10 10:25
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.97%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.63%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%6.3%2026-03-10 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%6.5%2026-03-09 16:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%6.5%2026-03-09 16:09
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%6.5%2026-03-09 16:09
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.25%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.91%6.5%2026-03-09 16:09
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%8.2%2026-03-10 11:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%8.9%2026-03-10 13:29
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%9.4%2026-03-10 10:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%11.2%2026-03-10 13:25
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.89%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.48%11.9%2026-03-10 16:05
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.89%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.55%13.2%2026-03-10 13:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.14%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.78%15.5%2026-03-10 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.81%3.47I 28.82%NM 24.64%3.63I 27.55%NM 23.55%17.0%2026-03-10 16:03