The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Lukko

Kickoff: 2026-03-21 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 44.83%2.23fair odd
EV -0.470%
Edge -0.212%
Kelly -0.386%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.93%44.94%44.73%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.102.102.2249.50%47.53%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lukko (Visit)

Prediction 55.17%1.81fair odd
EV +0.404%
Edge +0.222%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%55.06%55.27%57.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.731.8259.88%58.00%57.80%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 44.83%; Lukko (Visit): 55.17%. For Lukko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.404%.

16 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -9.44%E -4.67%K -9.25%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +0.404%E +0.222%K +0.492%G +0.002%4.5%2026-03-21 14:44
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 11:19
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 11:19
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -3.61%E -1.68%K -3.14%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.01%E -2.30%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 11:50
BetRivers🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.06%E -1.90%K -3.56%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-21 13:15
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 13:54
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 13:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.56%E -2.64%K -6.25%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 13:54
Bally Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.95%E -2.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 13:10
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -4.95%E -2.34%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -5.11%E -2.97%K -7.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 13:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.85%E -2.79%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.66%E -3.31%K -7.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 11:50
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 08:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 08:20
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.09%E -3.95%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.22%E -3.66%K -8.88%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-21 08:20
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -0.470%E -0.212%K -0.386%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -7.87%E -4.71%K -11.75%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 14:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%0.4%2026-03-21 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%4.9%2026-03-21 14:54
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%8.5%2026-03-21 13:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (16)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.80%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.27%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.94%3.1%2026-03-21 07:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.02%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%3.5%2026-03-21 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.02%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%3.5%2026-03-21 14:14
Svenska Spel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.02%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.77%3.5%2026-03-21 14:14
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.11%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.37%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-03-21 14:45
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%6.7%2026-03-21 14:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%6.7%2026-03-21 14:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%6.7%2026-03-21 14:15
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.02%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%6.7%2026-03-21 14:15
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%8.5%2026-03-21 02:14
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.15%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.76%9.3%2026-03-21 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.27%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.78%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%11.3%2026-03-21 11:50
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%11.8%2026-03-21 11:48
Everygame🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%11.8%2026-03-21 14:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.98%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.87%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.15%16.6%2026-03-21 13:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.33%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.84%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.83%16.7%2026-03-21 14:34