The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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HPK v Kärpät

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HPK (Local)

Prediction 61.60%1.62fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -5.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.74%61.64%61.56%62.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.541.551.5765.79%64.79%64.52%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kärpät (Visit)

Prediction 38.40%2.60fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.53%38.36%38.44%40.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.452.5343.48%41.02%40.82%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HPK (Local): 61.60%; Kärpät (Visit): 38.40%. For Kärpät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.53, with an expected value of -2.85%; they did not produce positive expected value.

15 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.29%E -2.09%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -4.00%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-07 13:00
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.29%E -2.09%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -5.92%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-07 10:59
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.92%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 13:20
Bally Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.92%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 13:30
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.92%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.68%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 12:55
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.68%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 12:54
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.68%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 12:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -4.52%E -2.92%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -11.68%E -5.08%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-07 12:55
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.14%E -3.33%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.77%E -1.92%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -5.14%E -3.33%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -4.77%E -1.92%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:00
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.75%E -3.76%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.00%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 11:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.75%E -3.76%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.00%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 11:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.75%E -3.76%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.00%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 11:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.75%E -3.76%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.00%E -1.60%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-07 10:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.75%E -3.76%K -10.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.92%E -2.42%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-07 12:58
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -6.37%E -4.19%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -2.85%E -1.13%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-07 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 59.54%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.46%5.6%2026-03-07 13:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.59I 62.89%NM 59.54%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.46%5.6%2026-03-07 13:55
Smarkets◎1.55I 64.52%NM 60.56%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%6.5%2026-03-07 12:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (15)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%3.4%2026-03-07 13:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%3.4%2026-03-07 13:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.60%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.64%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.76%3.4%2026-03-07 13:29
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.65%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%6.1%2026-03-07 13:20
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-03-07 13:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-03-07 13:20
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-03-07 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.86%6.7%2026-03-07 13:20
Betway🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%8.8%2026-03-07 12:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%8.9%2026-03-07 13:29
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%9.4%2026-03-07 13:19
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%10.9%2026-03-07 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.96%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.10%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.93%11.2%2026-03-07 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 49.59%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.29%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.12%15.9%2026-03-07 12:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 48.89%3.07I 32.57%NM 27.87%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.25%16.9%2026-03-07 13:33