The School of Odds
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W-B/Scranton Penguins v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-05-29 23:25 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local)

Prediction 45.33%2.21fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.483%
Kelly +0.876%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.88%45.33%45.42%46.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.002.002.2352.63%49.98%50.00%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 31.89%3.14fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.98%31.89%31.87%33.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.912.953.0237.74%34.41%33.90%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.78%4.39fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.05%22.78%22.71%23.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.094.124.2026.32%24.47%24.30%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local): 45.33%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 31.89%; Draw: 22.78%. For W-B/Scranton Penguins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.08%.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.88%EV +1.08%E +0.483%K +0.876%G +0.009%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.79%EV -9.75%E -3.45%K -5.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.32%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-29 21:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.43%EV -7.53%E -3.69%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-29 19:50
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.34%EV -8.44%E -4.18%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.00%EV -3.69%E -1.22%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.66%EV -5.90%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-29 22:59
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:49
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:49
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -4.33%E -1.44%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.30%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-29 19:50
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.42%EV -9.35%E -4.67%K -9.35%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.87%EV -9.12%E -3.20%K -4.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-29 19:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.66%EV -10.25%E -5.18%K -10.46%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -10.71%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -6.58%E -1.61%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-29 19:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.28%EV -10.71%E -5.44%K -11.04%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.85%EV -10.71%E -3.83%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.87%EV -11.14%E -2.86%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-29 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.13%EV -12.07%E -6.22%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.83%EV -12.30%E -4.47%K -7.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.04%EV -13.42%E -3.53%K -4.79%G +0.000%14.2%2026-05-29 22:38
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.55%EV -12.52%E -6.49%K -13.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -7.52%E -2.59%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -8.86%E -2.22%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-29 19:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.24%EV -13.88%E -7.31%K -15.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.44%EV -15.49%E -5.85%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.33%EV -12.28%E -3.19%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-29 19:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%3.0%2026-05-29 22:39
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%5.1%2026-05-29 19:49
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-05-29 22:39
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%7.2%2026-05-29 20:49
Bally Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%7.6%2026-05-29 19:48
betPARX🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.22%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.78%7.6%2026-05-29 19:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%7.6%2026-05-29 21:49
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%8.5%2026-05-29 19:49
BetRivers🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%8.5%2026-05-29 19:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-05-29 22:39