The School of Odds
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Toronto Marlies v Cleveland Monsters

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 23:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto Marlies (Local)

Prediction 44.80%2.23fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.659%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%44.80%44.80%47.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.092.132.2052.63%47.93%46.84%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cleveland Monsters (Visit)

Prediction 32.80%3.05fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.422%
Kelly -0.632%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.10%32.80%32.80%34.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.762.753.0137.74%36.22%36.36%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.40%4.46fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.41%22.40%22.40%23.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.024.004.2826.32%24.86%25.00%23.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Toronto Marlies (Local): 44.80%; Cleveland Monsters (Visit): 32.80%; Draw: 22.40%. For Cleveland Monsters (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.01, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.52%EV -1.45%E -0.659%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.36%EV -5.86%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.12%EV -7.24%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-20 20:10
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:18
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:19
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:19
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -2.79%E -1.29%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-20 12:19
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.90%EV -5.93%E -2.82%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00%EV -13.08%E -4.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -12.62%E -3.24%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-20 12:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.30%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -6.52%E -2.29%K -3.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -5.90%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-20 20:10
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.29%EV -8.17%E -3.99%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-20 23:00
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.03%EV -10.86%E -5.46%K -10.97%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.10%EV -1.27%E -0.422%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 21.87%EV -4.11%E -0.960%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-20 22:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.02%EV -10.86%E -5.46%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.58%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -10.38%E -2.60%K -3.46%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-20 22:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.88%EV -12.20%E -6.23%K -12.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.70%EV -9.80%E -3.56%K -5.60%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.41%EV -5.90%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%11.2%2026-05-20 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.46%EV -12.65%E -6.49%K -13.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.72%EV -13.08%E -4.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.82%EV -14.86%E -3.91%K -5.31%G +0.000%15.3%2026-05-20 23:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.24%EV -14.89%E -7.84%K -16.54%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.44%EV -13.08%E -4.94%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.33%EV -13.74%E -3.57%K -4.82%G +0.000%16.3%2026-05-20 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-05-20 23:00
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%5.3%2026-05-20 23:00
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%5.4%2026-05-20 20:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%7.5%2026-05-20 20:10
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-20 12:19
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-20 12:19
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-20 12:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.15%7.9%2026-05-20 20:00
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%8.1%2026-05-20 20:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%9.0%2026-05-20 20:10