The School of Odds
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Springfield Thunderbirds v Rochester Americans

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Springfield Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 35.79%2.79fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.07%35.91%35.79%37.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.552.552.6542.02%39.28%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rochester Americans (Visit)

Prediction 41.57%2.41fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.31%41.76%41.57%43.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.212.252.2948.78%45.28%44.54%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.65%4.42fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.291%
Kelly -0.377%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.32%22.65%23.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.733.973.904.3626.81%25.16%25.64%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Springfield Thunderbirds (Local): 35.79%; Rochester Americans (Visit): 41.57%; Draw: 22.65%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.36, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:25
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:25
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.19%EV -5.17%E -1.95%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -5.22%E -2.29%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 21:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -6.96%E -2.68%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.75%EV -7.72%E -3.48%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -7.15%E -1.74%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-10 20:08
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.22%EV -8.75%E -3.43%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.83%EV -8.55%E -3.89%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -15.08%E -4.02%K -5.48%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-10 21:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.07%EV -8.75%E -3.43%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -14.78%E -7.21%K -14.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -4.89%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-10 21:30
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.25%EV -6.89%E -3.07%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 21.79%EV -3.98%E -0.940%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-10 23:04
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.91%EV -10.53%E -4.21%K -7.02%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.37%EV -9.80%E -4.51%K -8.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.73%EV -10.55%E -2.67%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-10 20:10
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 37.62%EV -10.89%E -4.37%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.90%EV -4.81%E -2.10%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.48%EV -1.27%E -0.291%K -0.377%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-10 23:04
Betway🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -12.32%E -5.03%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.31%EV -6.47%E -2.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.67%EV -9.42%E -2.35%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-10 23:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.57%EV -12.32%E -5.03%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.50%EV -12.71%E -6.05%K -11.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.93%EV -13.95%E -3.67%K -4.98%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-10 22:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -14.11%E -5.88%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -10.63%E -4.94%K -9.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -4.89%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-10 23:05
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.89%EV -14.11%E -5.88%K -10.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.02%EV -14.78%E -7.21%K -14.08%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.09%EV -11.68%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-10 17:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.87%EV -14.83%E -6.23%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.24%EV -13.95%E -6.74%K -13.04%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 22.89%EV -15.53%E -4.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%17.1%2026-04-10 22:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%3.9%2026-04-10 23:05
Bet Right🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%5.1%2026-04-10 20:10
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%5.6%2026-04-10 20:05
betPARX🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%7.5%2026-04-10 21:25
Bally Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.45%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.55%7.5%2026-04-10 21:24
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%7.8%2026-04-10 20:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%8.1%2026-04-10 10:59
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%8.2%2026-04-10 20:10
BetRivers🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%8.4%2026-04-10 21:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%9.0%2026-04-10 21:40