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Rochester Americans v Toronto Marlies

Kickoff: 2026-03-27 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rochester Americans (Local)

Prediction 39.82%2.51fair odd
EV -4.83%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -3.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.40%40.20%39.82%41.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.272.302.3947.62%43.99%43.38%41.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto Marlies (Visit)

Prediction 37.32%2.68fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.39%37.29%37.32%37.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.452.452.5545.45%40.88%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.86%4.37fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -0.949%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%22.51%22.86%23.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.913.904.2027.40%25.58%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rochester Americans (Local): 39.82%; Toronto Marlies (Visit): 37.32%; Draw: 22.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.20, with an expected value of -3.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

10 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
GTbets🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.52%EV -4.83%E -2.02%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.78%EV -6.71%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 22.70%EV -4.90%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-26 04:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%EV -6.42%E -2.73%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.71%E -2.68%K -4.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -6.27%E -1.53%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-26 23:09
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -7.22%E -3.10%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.39%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 06:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -7.22%E -3.10%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.39%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 06:55
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -7.22%E -3.10%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.39%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 06:55
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -7.22%E -3.10%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.39%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 06:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -7.22%E -3.10%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.39%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 06:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.82%EV -7.22%E -3.10%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.39%EV -4.84%E -1.90%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-26 06:55
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 39.43%EV -8.01%E -3.47%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 37.80%EV -10.07%E -4.18%K -7.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-27 22:05
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -8.41%E -3.66%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-27 03:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 39.68%EV -9.60%E -4.23%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 37.22%EV -9.69%E -4.00%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -10.84%E -2.78%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-26 07:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -10.44%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.50%EV -8.56%E -2.14%K -2.85%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-26 07:50
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.83%EV -10.40%E -4.62%K -8.32%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.58%EV -8.57%E -3.50%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -13.13%E -3.45%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-26 06:55
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.64%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.11%EV -12.30%E -5.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -14.27%E -3.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-27 11:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.64%EV -12.39%E -5.63%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.11%EV -12.30%E -5.24%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -14.27%E -3.81%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-27 11:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 39.40%EV -13.59%E -6.26%K -11.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.17%EV -14.17%E -6.16%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.42%EV -16.56%E -4.54%K -6.25%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-27 22:38
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.53%EV -14.38%E -6.69%K -12.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.21%EV -10.44%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -3.98%E -0.949%K -1.24%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-27 22:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 39.53%EV -16.37%E -7.80%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 37.73%EV -17.90%E -8.14%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 22.74%EV -16.56%E -4.54%K -6.25%G +0.000%20.5%2026-03-26 07:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (10)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-03-27 22:50
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%4.8%2026-03-26 07:49
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%5.3%2026-03-27 18:29
Bally Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%7.4%2026-03-26 06:54
betPARX🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.74%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.26%7.4%2026-03-26 06:54
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%7.9%2026-03-26 07:04
BetRivers🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%7.9%2026-03-26 06:54
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%8.2%2026-03-27 11:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%9.0%2026-03-26 23:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%9.3%2026-03-27 18:30