The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Gummersbach v SC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 13:00 UTC

Final: VfL Gummersbach 31–33 SC Magdeburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Gummersbach (Local)

Prediction 23.37%4.28fair odd
EV +2.85%
Edge +0.647%
Kelly +0.837%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.90%23.81%23.42%29.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.924.004.4030.77%25.51%25.00%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 67.42%1.48fair odd
EV +5.85%
Edge +3.72%
Kelly +10.26%
Growth +0.600%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.85%67.04%67.35%70.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.341.5776.92%74.00%74.63%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.21%10.86fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.117%
Kelly +0.129%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.36%9.15%9.22%11.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.759.9910.0011.0012.90%10.01%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Gummersbach (Local): 23.37%; SC Magdeburg (Visit): 67.42%; Draw: 9.21%. For SC Magdeburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.85%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -24.03%E -7.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV +5.85%E +3.72%K +10.26%G +0.600%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.75%EV -9.76%E -0.996%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 08:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 24.66%EV -13.05%E -3.51%K -4.80%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.99%EV -6.29%E -4.52%K -16.13%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -9.76%E -0.996%K -1.11%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 12:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -11.18%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.78%EV -7.64%E -5.57%K -20.64%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -7.92%E -0.792%K -0.880%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 12:55
Unibet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:50
Unibet (NL)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:50
Casumo🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:55
Grosvenor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.05%EV -8.31%E -6.11%K -23.09%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -3.31%E -0.316%K -0.349%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 08:55
Winamax (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -1.83%E -0.436%K -0.572%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -9.66%E -7.21%K -28.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +1.29%E +0.117%K +0.129%G +0.002%7.5%2026-08-30 12:55
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -1.83%E -0.436%K -0.572%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -9.66%E -7.21%K -28.41%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +1.29%E +0.117%K +0.129%G +0.002%7.5%2026-08-30 12:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 24.19%EV -16.32%E -4.56%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 64.63%EV -9.66%E -7.21%K -28.41%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.18%EV -28.64%E -3.70%K -4.24%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-30 12:50
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -12.35%E -3.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -10.33%E -7.77%K -31.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -17.13%E -1.90%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 12:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -12.35%E -3.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -10.33%E -7.77%K -31.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -17.13%E -1.90%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 12:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -12.35%E -3.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -10.33%E -7.77%K -31.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -17.13%E -1.90%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-30 12:55
NordicBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.40%EV -11.01%E -8.34%K -34.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.92%E -0.792%K -0.880%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 12:55
Betsson🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.57%EV -6.50%E -1.63%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 68.40%EV -11.01%E -8.34%K -34.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.92%E -0.792%K -0.880%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 12:55
PMU (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.49%EV -12.35%E -3.29%K -4.49%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.73%EV -11.01%E -8.34%K -34.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.79%EV -17.13%E -1.90%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-30 08:55
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV +2.85%E +0.647%K +0.837%G +0.024%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -12.36%E -9.51%K -41.19%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV +1.29%E +0.117%K +0.129%G +0.002%8.7%2026-08-30 12:55
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -1.83%E -0.436%K -0.572%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.47%EV -12.36%E -9.51%K -41.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.03%EV -7.92%E -0.792%K -0.880%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-30 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -11.18%E -2.94%K -3.99%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.62%EV -12.36%E -9.51%K -41.19%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.25%EV -12.52%E -1.32%K -1.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-30 12:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 23.34%1.28I 78.13%NM 67.47%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.19%15.8%2026-08-30 12:55

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%6.3%2026-08-30 12:15