Language:English
TVB Stuttgart v THW Kiel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TVB Stuttgart (Local)
Prediction 23.03%4.34fair odd
EV +5.94%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.098%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.25%23.20%22.86%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.574.174.104.6028.01%23.95%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
THW Kiel (Visit)
Prediction 67.99%1.47fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -3.95%
Kelly -14.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.99%67.87%68.04%71.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.321.301.3976.92%75.78%76.92%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.98%11.14fair odd
EV +3.23%
Edge +0.281%
Kelly +0.308%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 11.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.10%8.93%9.10%9.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5010.6911.0011.5010.53%9.35%9.09%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TVB Stuttgart (Local): 23.03%; THW Kiel (Visit): 67.99%; Draw: 8.98%. For TVB Stuttgart (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.94%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -3.27%E -0.779%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -8.21%E -6.08%K -23.45%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -3.27%E -0.779%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -8.89%E -6.63%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 17:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.27%E -0.779%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -10.25%E -7.76%K -32.03%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.29%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-04 11:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.29%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-03-04 11:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.18%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.33%EV -6.17%E -4.47%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -5.74%E -0.547%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.53%E -5.54%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.23%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.53%E -5.54%K -20.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.23%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-05 17:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -9.57%E -7.19%K -29.00%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -10.23%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 67.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.22%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-03-05 17:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.72I 26.88%NM 24.66%EV -14.33%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 65.99%EV -5.49%E -3.95%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -12.03%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-05 17:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.57I 28.01%NM 24.81%EV -17.78%E -4.98%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.10%EV -8.89%E -6.63%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.08%EV -12.48%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-03-05 17:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.12% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 65.66% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.22% | 15.4% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 12.72% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 37.36% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 49.92% | 87.2% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 12.72% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 37.36% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 49.92% | 87.2% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 12.72% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 37.36% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 49.92% | 87.2% | 2026-03-05 17:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.66I 27.32%NM 25.61% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.39% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 17:15 |