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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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TVB Stuttgart v THW Kiel

开赛时间： 2026-03-05 18:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

24 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

TVB Stuttgart (主队)

预测 23.03%4.34公平赔率
EV +5.94%
优势 +1.29%
Kelly +1.65%
增长率 +0.098%

假设最高赔率为 4.60

博彩公司预测分布
20.25%23.20%22.86%24.81%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.574.174.104.6028.01%23.95%24.39%21.74%最小值均值中位数最大值

THW Kiel (客队)

预测 67.99%1.47公平赔率
EV -5.49%
优势 -3.95%
Kelly -14.08%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.39

博彩公司预测分布
65.99%67.87%68.04%71.65%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.301.321.301.3976.92%75.78%76.92%71.94%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 8.98%11.14公平赔率
EV +3.23%
优势 +0.281%
Kelly +0.308%
增长率 +0.010%

假设最高赔率为 11.50

博彩公司预测分布
8.10%8.93%9.10%9.36%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
9.5010.6911.0011.5010.53%9.35%9.09%8.70%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：TVB Stuttgart (主队)：23.03%；THW Kiel (客队)：67.99%；平局：8.98%。 对于“TVB Stuttgart (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为4.34。 当时有9家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为4.60，对应+5.94%的正期望值。

有 1 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (24 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
Casumo🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:20
Grosvenor🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:19
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:19
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:20
Unibet (NL)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:20
ATG (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:19
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.25%EV +5.94%E +1.29%K +1.65%G +0.098%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.65%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV +3.23%E +0.281%K +0.308%G +0.010%7.4%2026-03-05 17:20
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -3.27%E -0.779%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -8.21%E -6.08%K -23.45%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.50%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-05 17:20
Coolbet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -3.27%E -0.779%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -8.89%E -6.63%K -26.14%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-05 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -3.27%E -0.779%K -1.02%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -10.25%E -7.76%K -32.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-05 17:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.29%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-04 11:29
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.29%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -1.26%E -0.114%K -0.126%G +0.000%11.0%2026-03-04 11:34
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-05 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-05 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -7.88%E -1.97%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-05 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -10.18%E -2.61%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.33%EV -6.17%E -4.47%K -16.24%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -5.74%E -0.547%K -0.605%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-05 17:55
Betsson🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.53%E -5.54%K -20.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.23%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 17:55
NordicBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -7.53%E -5.54%K -20.91%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.23%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-05 17:54
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -9.57%E -7.19%K -29.00%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -10.23%E -1.02%K -1.14%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-05 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -13.64%E -3.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.41%EV -11.61%E -8.93%K -38.70%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.22%EV -14.72%E -1.55%K -1.73%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-05 17:20
Marathon Bet🎯3.72I 26.88%NM 24.66%EV -14.33%E -3.85%K -5.27%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.99%EV -5.49%E -3.95%K -14.08%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -12.03%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-05 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯3.57I 28.01%NM 24.81%EV -17.78%E -4.98%K -6.92%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 66.10%EV -8.89%E -6.63%K -26.14%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.08%EV -12.48%E -1.28%K -1.43%G +0.000%12.9%2026-03-05 17:54
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (4)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 25.12%1.32I 75.76%NM 65.66%9.40I 10.64%NM 9.22%15.4%2026-03-05 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 12.72%1.43I 69.93%NM 37.36%1.07I 93.46%NM 49.92%87.2%2026-03-05 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 12.72%1.43I 69.93%NM 37.36%1.07I 93.46%NM 49.92%87.2%2026-03-05 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 12.72%1.43I 69.93%NM 37.36%1.07I 93.46%NM 49.92%87.2%2026-03-05 17:55

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (1)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司选项 1选项 2利润率 ▲更新时间
Pinnacle🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 25.61%1.26I 79.37%NM 74.39%6.7%2026-03-05 17:15