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THW Kiel v ThSV Eisenach
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
THW Kiel (Local)
Prediction 84.63%1.18fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -5.46%
Kelly -55.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.11
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.27%84.57%84.79%86.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.1194.34%92.20%92.59%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
ThSV Eisenach (Visit)
Prediction 9.48%10.55fair odd
EV +13.73%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.25%
Growth +0.171%
assuming max odds 12.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.65%9.44%9.39%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.469.1012.0013.33%10.57%10.99%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 5.89%16.97fair odd
EV +1.63%
Edge +0.094%
Kelly +0.100%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 17.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.22%5.99%5.82%7.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5014.7414.0017.258.00%6.78%7.14%5.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 84.63%; ThSV Eisenach (Visit): 9.48%; Draw: 5.89%. For ThSV Eisenach (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.55. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.73%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.90%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +13.73%E +1.14%K +1.25%G +0.171% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +0.154%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-03 15:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.90%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +13.73%E +1.14%K +1.25%G +0.171% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV +0.154%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-03 15:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.61%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV +13.73%E +1.14%K +1.25%G +0.171% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -5.74%E -0.359%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-03 15:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.79%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV +4.25%E +0.386%K +0.425%G +0.018% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -5.74%E -0.359%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-03 15:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.69%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.26%EV +4.25%E +0.386%K +0.425%G +0.018% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -11.63%E -0.775%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-04-03 15:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.73%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -0.488%E -0.047%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV +0.154%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-03 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.73%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV -0.488%E -0.047%K -0.051%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV +0.154%E +0.009%K +0.010%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 02:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.07%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -5.23%E -0.523%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.74%EV -5.74%E -0.359%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-03 15:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.42%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.50%EV -9.02%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.08%EV -11.63%E -0.775%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 15:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.42%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.50%EV -9.02%E -0.939%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.08%EV -11.63%E -0.775%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-03 15:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -9.97%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -23.41%E -1.80%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-03 15:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -9.97%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -23.41%E -1.80%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-03 15:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -9.97%E -1.05%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -23.41%E -1.80%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-03 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.35%EV -6.91%E -6.28%K -69.06%G +0.000% | 8.70I 11.49%NM 10.54%EV -17.55%E -2.02%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.11%EV -11.63%E -0.775%K -0.831%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-04 13:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -6.06%E -5.46%K -55.08%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -17.52%E -1.25%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-03 09:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.18%EV -9.44%E -8.83%K -134.92%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -19.44%E -2.29%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 17.25I 5.80%NM 5.22%EV +1.63%E +0.094%K +0.100%G +0.002% | 11.0% | 2026-04-04 13:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 82.15%EV -10.29%E -9.71%K -171.51%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.88%EV -24.18%E -3.02%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 6.97%EV -26.36%E -2.11%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-03 15:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 81.27%EV -8.60%E -7.96%K -107.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -28.92%E -3.86%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.02%EV -26.36%E -2.11%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-03 09:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 81.68% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.10% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.22% | 15.5% | 2026-04-03 15:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.83% | 7.72I 12.95%NM 12.17% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 13:00 |