Language:English
THW Kiel v SG Flensburg-Handewitt
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
THW Kiel (Local)
Prediction 51.27%1.95fair odd
EV -4.63%
Edge -2.49%
Kelly -5.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.09%51.31%51.16%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.791.791.8659.88%55.82%55.87%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Visit)
Prediction 36.77%2.72fair odd
EV -4.39%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.44%36.84%36.90%38.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6043.48%40.75%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 11.95%8.37fair odd
EV +5.19%
Edge +0.589%
Kelly +0.665%
Growth +0.034%
assuming max odds 8.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.42%11.85%11.94%12.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.907.808.8014.29%12.65%12.82%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 51.27%; SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Visit): 36.77%; Draw: 11.95%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.37. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.19%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.52%EV -8.73%E -4.91%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.05%EV -11.38%E -4.72%K -8.07%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.42%EV +5.19%E +0.589%K +0.665%G +0.034% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.15%EV -4.63%E -2.49%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.2% | 2026-03-13 07:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.15%EV -4.63%E -2.49%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.2% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.15%EV -4.63%E -2.49%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.2% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.29%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.29%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.29%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.29%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.29%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.29%EV -5.14%E -2.78%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.76%EV -11.74%E -4.89%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.95%EV +1.60%E +0.188%K +0.213%G +0.003% | 7.5% | 2026-03-13 07:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 50.48%EV -5.66%E -3.07%K -6.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.91%EV -9.91%E -4.04%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -4.38%E -0.547%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-13 15:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -10.27%E -5.87%K -13.69%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.02%EV -6.23%E -2.44%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -4.38%E -0.547%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 04:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.25%EV -8.22%E -4.59%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.99%EV -8.80%E -3.55%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.76%EV -6.77%E -0.868%K -0.995%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-14 04:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.87%EV -8.73%E -4.91%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.21%EV -6.23%E -2.44%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.91%EV -7.37%E -0.950%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -8.73%E -4.91%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 36.96%EV -9.54%E -3.88%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 11.96%EV -9.16%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 04:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.08%EV -8.73%E -4.91%K -11.20%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 36.96%EV -9.54%E -3.88%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 11.96%EV -9.16%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-14 04:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.71%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.73%EV -8.07%E -3.23%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -10.35%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 04:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -7.71%E -4.28%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.73%EV -8.07%E -3.23%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -10.35%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-14 04:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.62%EV -14.37%E -8.61%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.44%EV -4.39%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -10.35%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-12 08:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.62%EV -14.37%E -8.61%K -21.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.44%EV -4.39%E -1.69%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.94%EV -10.35%E -1.38%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-03-12 09:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.85%EV -10.78%E -6.20%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 37.02%EV -12.11%E -5.07%K -8.71%G +0.000% | 7.30I 13.70%NM 12.12%EV -12.74%E -1.75%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-03-14 18:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.09%EV -10.78%E -6.20%K -14.57%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.89%EV -15.42%E -6.70%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.02%EV -13.34%E -1.84%K -2.13%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-03-14 03:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57%EV -11.30%E -6.53%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.07%E -3.23%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -16.33%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57%EV -11.30%E -6.53%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.07%E -3.23%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -16.33%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.57%EV -11.30%E -6.53%K -15.47%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.69%EV -8.07%E -3.23%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -16.33%E -2.33%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 50.63% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 37.00% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.37% | 15.5% | 2026-03-14 04:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 28.29% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 22.40% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 49.31% | 86.0% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 28.29% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 22.40% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 49.31% | 86.0% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.90I 52.63%NM 28.29% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 22.40% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 49.31% | 86.0% | 2026-03-14 18:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78% | 5.3% | 2026-03-14 18:40 |