The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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THW Kiel v Füchse Berlin

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 13:00 UTC

Final: THW Kiel 28–35 Füchse Berlin

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

THW Kiel (Local)

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.486%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%24.00%24.12%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.904.1028.57%25.77%25.64%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Füchse Berlin (Visit)

Prediction 66.80%1.50fair odd
EV -6.47%
Edge -4.62%
Kelly -16.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.29%66.83%66.73%68.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.351.351.4077.52%73.86%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.17%10.90fair odd
EV +0.906%
Edge +0.082%
Kelly +0.091%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.36%9.17%9.16%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.8210.0011.0011.11%10.18%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 24.02%; Füchse Berlin (Visit): 66.80%; Draw: 9.17%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.90. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.906%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.08%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV +0.906%E +0.082%K +0.091%G +0.001%8.8%2026-05-10 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.82%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.33%EV -7.81%E -5.66%K -20.55%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -3.68%E -0.351%K -0.387%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 12:39
Unibet (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.07%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.92%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -3.68%E -0.351%K -0.387%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 12:39
LiveScore Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:49
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:49
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:49
Grosvenor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:49
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:50
Casumo🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:49
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:49
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.51%E -0.367%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -9.81%E -7.27%K -28.04%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.22%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-10 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 24.39%EV -9.67%E -2.57%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.44%EV -7.81%E -5.66%K -20.55%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-10 12:34
Codere (IT)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -8.71%E -2.29%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.78%EV -8.48%E -6.19%K -22.92%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-10 12:44
NordicBet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 12:38
Betsson🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.73%EV -9.15%E -6.73%K -25.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-10 12:39
Paddy Power🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.84%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.22%EV -11.15%E -8.38%K -33.79%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.94%EV -8.27%E -0.827%K -0.919%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-10 12:39
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -3.91%E -0.977%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.10%EV -7.81%E -5.66%K -20.55%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.75%EV -12.85%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 11:54
Winamax (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 24.86%EV -14.72%E -4.15%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 65.85%EV -10.48%E -7.82%K -30.83%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.29%EV -12.85%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-10 12:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -6.31%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 68.19%EV -13.82%E -10.72%K -47.67%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.26%EV -12.85%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-10 11:49
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -15.92%E -4.55%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.29%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.19%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.44%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 23:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -15.92%E -4.55%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.29%EV -6.47%E -4.62%K -16.19%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -17.44%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-08 23:18
888sport🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.15%E -8.38%K -33.79%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -17.44%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-10 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.15%E -8.38%K -33.79%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -17.44%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-10 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -9.91%E -2.64%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.56%EV -11.15%E -8.38%K -33.79%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -17.44%E -1.94%K -2.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-10 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 25.07%1.32I 75.76%NM 65.53%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.40%15.6%2026-05-10 12:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.10%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.90%6.3%2026-05-10 12:49