The School of Odds
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ThSV Eisenach v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 17:00 UTC

Final: ThSV Eisenach 34–38 TBV Lemgo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ThSV Eisenach (Local)

Prediction 29.81%3.35fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.954%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.85%29.70%29.78%30.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.893.123.203.2534.60%32.10%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 59.73%1.67fair odd
EV -7.42%
Edge -4.79%
Kelly -13.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.75%59.84%59.78%61.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.521.521.5568.97%65.96%65.79%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.45%9.57fair odd
EV -0.687%
Edge -0.072%
Kelly -0.081%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.71%10.46%10.44%12.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.428.509.5014.29%11.88%11.76%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ThSV Eisenach (Local): 29.81%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 59.73%; Draw: 10.45%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 9.50, with an expected value of -0.687%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.52%EV -3.10%E -0.954%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.58%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-22 16:40
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:49
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:49
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:49
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:49
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:49
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.84%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.31%EV -8.61%E -5.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 08:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.82%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.48%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -0.687%E -0.072%K -0.081%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 05:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.42%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -26.82%E -3.83%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 00:30
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -4.59%E -1.44%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.42%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.73%EV -26.82%E -3.83%K -4.47%G +0.000%12.2%2026-05-21 00:30
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.80%EV -7.42%E -4.79%K -13.49%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.30%EV -5.91%E -0.657%K -0.739%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-22 05:00
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.96%EV -8.01%E -5.20%K -14.84%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.26%EV -5.91%E -0.657%K -0.739%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-21 07:59
Marathon Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.34%EV -9.21%E -6.06%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.08%EV -4.87%E -0.535%K -0.601%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-22 16:50
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -7.57%E -2.44%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.23%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.63%EV -11.14%E -1.31%K -1.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-05-21 07:59
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.70%EV -9.06%E -2.97%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.36%EV -13.39%E -9.23%K -29.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.94%EV -16.37%E -2.05%K -2.34%G +0.000%14.3%2026-05-21 07:50
NordicBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.24%EV -10.56%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -9.21%E -6.06%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -5.91%E -0.657%K -0.739%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 07:59
Betsson🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.24%EV -10.56%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -9.21%E -6.06%K -17.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -5.91%E -0.657%K -0.739%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 07:58
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -10.56%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.37%E -2.05%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-22 15:40
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -10.56%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.37%E -2.05%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-22 15:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -10.56%E -3.52%K -5.28%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.40%E -6.94%K -20.81%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -16.37%E -2.05%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-22 15:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.22%EV -13.54%E -4.67%K -7.12%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 58.82%EV -11.00%E -7.38%K -22.45%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.96%EV -16.37%E -2.05%K -2.34%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-22 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 30.69%EV -13.83%E -4.79%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 58.75%EV -9.81%E -6.49%K -19.23%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.56%EV -12.19%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-22 16:46
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.84I 35.21%NM 30.50%1.47I 68.03%NM 58.93%8.20I 12.20%NM 10.56%15.4%2026-05-21 08:00

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%6.4%2026-05-21 14:00