The School of Odds
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ThSV Eisenach v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-06-07 13:00 UTC

Final: ThSV Eisenach 33–40 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ThSV Eisenach (Local)

Prediction 55.34%1.81fair odd
EV +10.69%
Edge +5.34%
Kelly +10.69%
Growth +1.14%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.54%54.56%55.37%57.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.652.0065.36%60.68%60.61%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 33.02%3.03fair odd
EV -0.932%
Edge -0.311%
Kelly -0.466%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%34.05%33.04%41.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.272.732.703.0044.05%36.62%37.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.63%8.60fair odd
EV +5.86%
Edge +0.644%
Kelly +0.724%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 9.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.08%11.39%11.58%12.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.048.009.1014.29%12.44%12.50%10.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ThSV Eisenach (Local): 55.34%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 33.02%; Draw: 11.63%. For ThSV Eisenach (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.81. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.69%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.54%EV +10.69%E +5.34%K +10.69%G +1.14%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.89%EV -25.04%E -11.03%K -19.72%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.57%EV +4.70%E +0.522%K +0.587%G +0.028%5.2%2026-06-07 11:29
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.10%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.08%EV -10.84%E -4.01%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.12%E -0.131%K -0.149%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-07 08:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.92%EV -7.58%E -4.54%K -11.31%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.00%EV -13.48%E -5.15%K -8.32%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.08%EV +5.86%E +0.644%K +0.724%G +0.042%9.0%2026-06-07 12:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.87%EV -8.13%E -4.90%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.54%EV -5.89%E -2.07%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -6.93%E -0.867%K -0.990%G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-07 11:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.69%EV -8.68%E -5.26%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -7.54%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -6.93%E -0.867%K -0.990%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-07 11:49
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.35%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.19%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.64%EV -9.26%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-07 11:49
Betsson🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.35%EV -9.24%E -5.63%K -14.43%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.19%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.64%EV -9.26%E -1.19%K -1.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-06-07 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.72%EV -10.34%E -6.38%K -16.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -7.54%E -2.69%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.04%EV -12.75%E -1.70%K -1.96%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-07 11:48
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -9.19%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -12.75%E -1.70%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-07 11:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -9.19%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -12.75%E -1.70%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-07 11:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -10.90%E -6.77%K -17.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -9.19%E -3.34%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -12.75%E -1.70%K -1.96%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-07 11:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.39%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -2.58%E -0.876%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -6.93%E -0.867%K -0.990%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-07 11:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.19%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 32.95%EV -11.50%E -4.29%K -6.85%G +0.000%7.45I 13.42%NM 11.85%EV -13.33%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%13.2%2026-06-07 12:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.08%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.90%EV -14.14%E -5.44%K -8.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.02%EV -6.93%E -0.867%K -0.990%G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-07 08:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 54.81%EV -11.45%E -7.16%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.09%EV -12.49%E -4.71%K -7.57%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.10%EV -15.66%E -2.16%K -2.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-07 11:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.85%EV -15.32%E -10.02%K -28.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -0.932%E -0.311%K -0.466%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -18.57%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-07 11:29
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.85%EV -15.32%E -10.02%K -28.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -0.932%E -0.311%K -0.466%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.64%EV -18.57%E -2.65%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-07 11:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 54.87%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.09%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.04%15.3%2026-06-07 11:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-06-07 11:59