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ThSV Eisenach v HC Erlangen

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

ThSV Eisenach (Local)

Prediction 54.67%1.83fair odd
EV -6.52%
Edge -3.81%
Kelly -9.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.76%54.75%54.74%56.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.671.681.7162.89%59.81%59.52%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HC Erlangen (Visit)

Prediction 33.57%2.98fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.911%
Kelly -1.39%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.72%33.63%33.55%35.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.712.652.9038.91%36.97%37.74%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.76%8.50fair odd
EV +5.83%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.729%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.35%11.63%11.71%12.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.108.009.0014.29%12.35%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: ThSV Eisenach (Local): 54.67%; HC Erlangen (Visit): 33.57%; Draw: 11.76%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.50. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.83%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 08:59
LeoVegas🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 08:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 09:00
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 08:59
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 08:59
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 09:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.49%EV -6.52%E -3.81%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.16%EV -11.04%E -4.16%K -6.69%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV +5.83%E +0.648%K +0.729%G +0.042%7.3%2026-02-26 08:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.92%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.67%EV -13.72%E -5.34%K -8.74%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.42%EV +3.48%E +0.395%K +0.446%G +0.016%9.1%2026-02-26 17:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.96%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.37%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -5.93%E -0.741%K -0.847%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-26 11:35
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.62%EV -7.06%E -4.15%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.77%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -5.93%E -0.741%K -0.847%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 17:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.25%EV -8.16%E -4.85%K -11.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.15%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -5.93%E -0.741%K -0.847%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-26 11:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.78%EV -11.44%E -7.06%K -18.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.72%EV -2.64%E -0.911%K -1.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -5.93%E -0.741%K -0.847%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-26 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.90%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.34%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.75%EV -8.28%E -1.06%K -1.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-26 11:40
NordicBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.88%EV -9.25%E -5.57%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.99%EV -10.63%E -1.40%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-26 11:35
Betsson🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.88%EV -9.25%E -5.57%K -14.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.13%EV -7.68%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.99%EV -10.63%E -1.40%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-26 11:34
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.79%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -11.81%E -1.57%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-26 11:34
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.76%EV -8.70%E -5.21%K -12.99%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.27%EV -12.04%E -4.60%K -7.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -11.81%E -1.57%K -1.82%G +0.000%11.4%2026-02-26 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.16%EV -11.44%E -7.06%K -18.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.74%EV -12.71%E -4.89%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.10%EV -14.75%E -2.03%K -2.36%G +0.000%14.0%2026-02-26 11:34
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -12.53%E -7.83%K -20.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.75%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -17.69%E -2.53%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-25 23:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -12.53%E -7.83%K -20.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.75%EV -6.00%E -2.14%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -17.69%E -2.53%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-02-26 00:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.18%EV -13.08%E -8.22%K -22.16%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 33.52%EV -13.72%E -5.34%K -8.74%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.31%EV -17.69%E -2.53%K -2.95%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-26 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.60I 62.50%NM 54.09%2.58I 38.76%NM 33.54%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.36%15.5%2026-02-26 11:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%5.7%2026-02-26 17:35