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TBV Lemgo v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TBV Lemgo (Local)

Prediction 61.16%1.64fair odd
EV +0.906%
Edge +0.549%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.90%60.67%61.32%65.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.521.521.6573.53%65.67%65.79%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV +6.57%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.160%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.91%29.22%28.61%32.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.092.953.7036.36%32.34%33.90%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.04%9.96fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -0.485%
Kelly -0.542%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.67%10.11%10.07%11.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.658.509.5012.50%11.56%11.76%10.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 61.16%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 28.80%; Draw: 10.04%. For MT Melsungen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.57%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.04%EV -16.83%E -12.37%K -46.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV +6.57%E +1.78%K +2.43%G +0.160%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -19.67%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-03 15:20
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.04%EV -16.83%E -12.37%K -46.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.91%EV +6.57%E +1.78%K +2.43%G +0.160%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -19.67%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-03 15:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.33%EV -11.32%E -7.81%K -25.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.01%EV -2.07%E -0.608%K -0.862%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.67%EV -4.61%E -0.485%K -0.542%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 14:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.02%EV -8.27%E -5.51%K -16.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.61%E -0.485%K -0.542%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 14:30
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.64%EV -11.94%E -8.29%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.02%EV -9.63%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.16%EV -7.04%E -4.63%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.61%E -0.485%K -0.542%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 14:29
Betsson🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -10.10%E -6.87%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.87%EV -7.62%E -0.828%K -0.929%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 14:30
NordicBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.76%EV -10.10%E -6.87%K -21.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 9.87%EV -7.62%E -0.828%K -0.929%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 14:30
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.35%EV -11.94%E -8.29%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -19.67%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 16:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.35%EV -11.94%E -8.29%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -19.67%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 16:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.35%EV -11.94%E -8.29%K -27.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.61%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -19.67%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 16:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.11%EV -11.32%E -7.81%K -25.17%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 28.77%EV -11.29%E -3.66%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.13%EV -12.14%E -1.39%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-04 16:47
Coolbet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.70%EV +0.906%E +0.549%K +1.39%G +0.013%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.27%EV -15.03%E -5.09%K -7.71%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.02%EV -4.61%E -0.485%K -0.542%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 06:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.00%EV -10.71%E -7.34%K -23.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.69%EV -15.03%E -5.09%K -7.71%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.31%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-04 14:29
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Casumo🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%EV -1.54%E -0.956%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.82%EV -16.47%E -5.68%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.06%EV -3.37%E -2.14%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.85%EV -17.05%E -5.92%K -9.07%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.08%EV -8.63%E -0.948%K -1.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 16:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 56.90%EV -5.21%E -3.36%K -9.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.07%EV -20.79%E -7.56%K -11.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.02%EV -19.67%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-04 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 60.72%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.94%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.34%15.2%2026-04-04 14:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%5.6%2026-04-04 16:55