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TBV Lemgo v GWD Minden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TBV Lemgo (Local)
Prediction 85.06%1.18fair odd
EV -6.44%
Edge -5.85%
Kelly -64.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.54%85.08%85.05%88.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.1095.24%93.14%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
GWD Minden (Visit)
Prediction 9.25%10.81fair odd
EV +20.27%
Edge +1.56%
Kelly +1.69%
Growth +0.342%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.11%9.22%9.22%10.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.2710.0013.0011.76%9.74%10.00%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 5.69%17.57fair odd
EV +8.13%
Edge +0.428%
Kelly +0.452%
Growth +0.037%
assuming max odds 19.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.75%5.71%5.74%7.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5016.0416.0019.008.00%6.23%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 85.06%; GWD Minden (Visit): 9.25%; Draw: 5.69%. For GWD Minden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.81. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.27%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.03%EV -10.69%E -10.18%K -213.80%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +20.27%E +1.56%K +1.69%G +0.342% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.86%EV +8.13%E +0.428%K +0.452%G +0.037% | 8.2% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.03%EV -10.69%E -10.18%K -213.80%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +20.27%E +1.56%K +1.69%G +0.342% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.86%EV +8.13%E +0.428%K +0.452%G +0.037% | 8.2% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.90%EV -9.84%E -9.28%K -163.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -3.25%E -0.191%K -0.203%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-01 16:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.51%EV -10.69%E -10.18%K -213.80%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV +11.02%E +0.918%K +1.00%G +0.110% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV +8.13%E +0.428%K +0.452%G +0.037% | 8.8% | 2026-05-01 17:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%EV -8.99%E -8.40%K -128.41%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV +6.39%E +0.556%K +0.609%G +0.039% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +2.44%E +0.136%K +0.144%G +0.004% | 7.7% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.79%EV -8.14%E -7.54%K -101.73%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.42%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-01 05:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.45%EV -8.99%E -8.40%K -128.41%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +1.77%E +0.161%K +0.177%G +0.003% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +2.44%E +0.136%K +0.144%G +0.004% | 8.1% | 2026-05-01 07:18 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-30 23:58 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-30 23:58 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.29%E -6.69%K -80.97%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -8.99%E -8.40%K -128.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-01 16:08 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -8.99%E -8.40%K -128.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.48%E -0.748%K -0.832%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -8.94%E -0.559%K -0.596%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-01 16:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -9.84%E -9.28%K -163.99%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -12.11%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -26.01%E -2.00%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-01 15:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -9.84%E -9.28%K -163.99%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -12.11%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -26.01%E -2.00%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-01 16:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -9.84%E -9.28%K -163.99%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -12.11%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -26.01%E -2.00%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-01 16:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.16%EV -9.84%E -9.28%K -163.99%G +0.000% | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.09%EV -17.20%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%EV +8.13%E +0.428%K +0.452%G +0.037% | 10.8% | 2026-05-01 17:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.45%EV -6.44%E -5.85%K -64.37%G +0.000% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV -18.59%E -2.11%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -14.63%E -0.975%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-01 17:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 82.54%EV -8.99%E -8.40%K -128.41%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.39%EV -21.36%E -2.51%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.07%EV -28.86%E -2.31%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 83.24%EV -10.69%E -10.18%K -213.80%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.28%EV -21.36%E -2.51%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.47%EV -23.17%E -1.72%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-05-01 16:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 82.50% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 10.56% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 6.93% | 15.4% | 2026-05-01 16:09 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.48% | 6.91I 14.47%NM 13.52% | 7.1% | 2026-05-01 15:15 |