The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SG Flensburg-Handewitt v TBV Lemgo

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 17:00 UTC

Final: SG Flensburg-Handewitt 38–30 TBV Lemgo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local)

Prediction 70.42%1.42fair odd
EV -7.75%
Edge -5.92%
Kelly -25.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.41%70.21%70.56%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.281.291.3181.97%78.00%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TBV Lemgo (Visit)

Prediction 21.08%4.74fair odd
EV +3.31%
Edge +0.675%
Kelly +0.849%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.78%21.19%20.95%22.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.514.404.9025.00%22.16%22.73%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.50%11.77fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.196%
Kelly -0.215%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.07%8.60%8.49%9.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5010.3810.5011.5010.53%9.63%9.52%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local): 70.42%; TBV Lemgo (Visit): 21.08%; Draw: 8.50%. For TBV Lemgo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.74. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.31%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:15
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +3.31%E +0.675%K +0.849%G +0.028%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.75%E -1.02%K -1.13%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-08 08:14
PMU (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.38%EV -14.09%E -11.55%K -64.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.79%EV -0.907%E -0.193%K -0.245%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.83%EV -15.00%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-08 08:14
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.07%EV -8.46%E -6.51%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.12%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -6.50%E -0.591%K -0.650%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-09 16:54
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.64%EV -9.16%E -7.10%K -31.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -5.12%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.00%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-09 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.84%EV -7.75%E -5.92%K -25.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.09%EV -7.23%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -2.25%E -0.196%K -0.215%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-09 11:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -8.46%E -6.51%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -7.23%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -6.50%E -0.591%K -0.650%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 10:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -8.46%E -6.51%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -7.23%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -6.50%E -0.591%K -0.650%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-09 11:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.60%EV -8.46%E -6.51%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -7.23%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%10.75I 9.30%NM 8.54%EV -8.63%E -0.803%K -0.885%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-09 16:39
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -9.16%E -7.10%K -31.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -8.71%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -19.25%E -2.03%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 04:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -9.16%E -7.10%K -31.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -8.71%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -19.25%E -2.03%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 04:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -9.16%E -7.10%K -31.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -8.71%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -19.25%E -2.03%K -2.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-09 04:44
NordicBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.20%EV -9.16%E -7.10%K -31.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.45%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -6.50%E -0.591%K -0.650%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-09 11:45
Betsson🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.20%EV -9.16%E -7.10%K -31.59%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -11.45%E -2.73%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -6.50%E -0.591%K -0.650%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-09 11:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.32%EV -9.87%E -7.71%K -35.24%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 22.02%EV -15.03%E -3.73%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.25I 9.76%NM 8.66%EV -12.88%E -1.26%K -1.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-09 16:47
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -8.46%E -6.51%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -15.67%E -3.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -19.25%E -2.03%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 22:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -8.46%E -6.51%K -28.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -15.67%E -3.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -19.25%E -2.03%K -2.26%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 22:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.23%EV -10.57%E -8.32%K -39.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -15.67%E -3.92%K -5.22%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.79%EV -15.00%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000%13.7%2026-05-09 11:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 68.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.26%9.80I 10.20%NM 8.86%15.2%2026-05-09 11:44

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.06%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.94%6.8%2026-05-09 02:59