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SG Flensburg-Handewitt v MT Melsungen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local)
Prediction 75.96%1.32fair odd
EV -7.33%
Edge -6.01%
Kelly -33.31%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.79%76.21%75.89%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.191.191.2286.96%84.28%84.03%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
MT Melsungen (Visit)
Prediction 16.39%6.10fair odd
EV +6.56%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.078%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.90%16.09%16.48%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.926.006.5020.83%16.91%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 7.65%13.08fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -0.354%
Kelly -0.385%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 12.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.41%7.71%7.64%8.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.9312.0012.5010.00%8.38%8.33%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Flensburg-Handewitt (Local): 75.96%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 16.39%; Draw: 7.65%. For MT Melsungen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.10. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.56%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV +6.56%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -12.65%E -11.00%K -84.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV +6.56%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-22 18:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.57%EV -12.65%E -11.00%K -84.30%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV +6.56%E +1.01%K +1.19%G +0.078% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-22 18:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.78%EV -9.61%E -8.07%K -50.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.81%EV +2.46%E +0.394%K +0.469%G +0.012% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -11.13%E -9.51%K -65.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -1.64%E -0.273%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -15.89%E -1.44%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -11.13%E -9.51%K -65.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -1.64%E -0.273%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -15.89%E -1.44%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -11.13%E -9.51%K -65.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -1.64%E -0.273%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -15.89%E -1.44%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.52%EV -8.85%E -7.37%K -44.24%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -4.92%E -0.848%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 12:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.24%EV -7.33%E -6.01%K -33.31%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.32%EV -6.56%E -1.15%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.44%EV -4.42%E -0.354%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 11:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.81%EV -8.09%E -6.68%K -38.51%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.38%EV -8.20%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.81%EV -10.16%E -0.865%K -0.945%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 13:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.58%EV -11.89%E -10.25%K -74.29%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.66%EV -8.20%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.77%EV -23.54%E -2.35%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-23 09:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.86%EV -8.85%E -7.37%K -44.24%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.83%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 11:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -11.13%E -9.51%K -65.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.24%EV -9.83%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.44%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-23 11:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.48%EV -8.09%E -6.68%K -38.51%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.91%EV -11.47%E -2.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-23 18:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.63%EV -8.85%E -7.37%K -44.24%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -11.47%E -2.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 11:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.63%EV -8.85%E -7.37%K -44.24%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -11.47%E -2.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-04-23 11:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.51%EV -8.85%E -7.37%K -44.24%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 16.94%EV -12.29%E -2.30%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -8.25%E -0.687%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 18:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 73.79%EV -11.13%E -9.51%K -65.45%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 17.99%EV -21.31%E -4.44%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.22%EV -19.72%E -1.88%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-04-23 11:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.63% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.10% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.27% | 15.1% | 2026-04-23 11:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 09:45 |