The School of Odds
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SC Magdeburg v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:30 UTC

Final: SC Magdeburg 41–28 HSV Hamburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Magdeburg (Local)

Prediction 84.88%1.18fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -5.21%
Kelly -52.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.27%85.02%84.95%87.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.091.091.1195.24%92.13%91.74%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 9.30%10.75fair odd
EV +20.89%
Edge +1.61%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.364%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.07%9.12%9.26%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.288.5013.0013.33%10.77%11.76%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.82%17.19fair odd
EV +4.70%
Edge +0.261%
Kelly +0.276%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.14%5.86%5.79%7.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5014.9614.0018.008.00%6.69%7.14%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Magdeburg (Local): 84.88%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 9.30%; Draw: 5.82%. For HSV Hamburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.75. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.89%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.52%EV -10.87%E -10.35%K -217.42%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +20.89%E +1.61%K +1.74%G +0.364%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -1.12%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-10 14:14
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.90%EV -10.02%E -9.46%K -167.04%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +11.59%E +0.966%K +1.05%G +0.122%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -1.12%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-08 13:29
Winamax (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.45%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -131.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +2.29%E +0.208%K +0.229%G +0.005%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +4.70%E +0.261%K +0.276%G +0.013%8.1%2026-05-10 14:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.45%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -131.05%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +2.29%E +0.208%K +0.229%G +0.005%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV +4.70%E +0.261%K +0.276%G +0.013%8.1%2026-05-10 14:09
Coolbet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.95%EV -7.48%E -6.86%K -83.06%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -7.01%E -0.701%K -0.779%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.79%EV -6.94%E -0.434%K -0.462%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-10 07:09
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -131.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.01%E -0.701%K -0.779%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -6.94%E -0.434%K -0.462%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 14:09
Betsson🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -9.17%E -8.57%K -131.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -7.01%E -0.701%K -0.779%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -6.94%E -0.434%K -0.462%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-10 14:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.21%EV -7.48%E -6.86%K -83.06%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.87%EV -13.52%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 5.92%EV -9.84%E -0.635%K -0.679%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-10 14:19
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.38%EV -10.02%E -9.46%K -167.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.82%EV -16.31%E -1.81%K -2.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -24.39%E -1.88%K -2.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-10 06:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.38%EV -10.02%E -9.46%K -167.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.82%EV -16.31%E -1.81%K -2.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -24.39%E -1.88%K -2.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-10 06:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 83.38%EV -10.02%E -9.46%K -167.04%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.82%EV -16.31%E -1.81%K -2.04%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -24.39%E -1.88%K -2.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-05-10 06:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
LeoVegas🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.65%EV -5.78%E -5.21%K -52.53%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.55%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-10 07:04
Coral🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -7.48%E -6.86%K -83.06%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -1.12%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.87%EV -7.48%E -6.86%K -83.06%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.75%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -1.12%E -0.066%K -0.070%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-08 13:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 83.44%EV -10.87%E -10.35%K -217.42%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.31%EV -20.96%E -2.47%K -2.79%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.26%EV -18.57%E -1.33%K -1.43%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-10 14:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.27%EV -8.32%E -7.71%K -104.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -30.26%E -4.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.02%EV -27.29%E -2.18%K -2.37%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-10 07:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.05I 95.24%NM 82.51%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.83%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.66%15.4%2026-05-10 14:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.64%8.27I 12.09%NM 11.36%6.4%2026-05-10 14:04