The School of Odds
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SC DHfK Leipzig v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 17:00 UTC

Final: SC DHfK Leipzig 27–33 MT Melsungen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC DHfK Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.47%32.88%32.44%36.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.782.752.9538.46%35.99%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 56.15%1.78fair odd
EV +1.08%
Edge +0.599%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.97%55.87%56.09%57.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.631.621.8065.36%61.43%61.73%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.47%8.72fair odd
EV +5.51%
Edge +0.599%
Kelly +0.672%
Growth +0.037%

assuming max odds 9.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.19%11.24%11.47%11.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.148.009.2013.33%12.29%12.50%10.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC DHfK Leipzig (Local): 32.38%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 56.15%; Draw: 11.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.51%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.67%EV -15.82%E -6.08%K -9.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.97%EV +1.08%E +0.599%K +1.35%G +0.015%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.36%EV +5.51%E +0.599%K +0.672%G +0.037%4.9%2026-05-21 12:09
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.22%EV -13.23%E -4.94%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.59%EV -7.35%E -4.45%K -11.30%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV +3.21%E +0.357%K +0.402%G +0.013%9.0%2026-05-21 16:00
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.56%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.59%EV -6.78%E -4.09%K -10.28%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -2.52%E -0.297%K -0.336%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-21 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.72%EV -6.10%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.78%EV -9.03%E -5.57%K -14.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 13:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.72%EV -6.10%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.78%EV -9.03%E -5.57%K -14.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-21 13:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.13%EV -4.49%E -1.52%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.39%EV -10.15%E -6.35%K -16.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.48%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-21 13:39
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.87%EV -6.75%E -2.34%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -9.03%E -5.57%K -14.57%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-21 13:29
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.99%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -9.59%E -5.96%K -15.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 13:29
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.99%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.62%EV -9.59%E -5.96%K -15.72%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 13:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.64%EV -14.85%E -5.65%K -9.11%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.30%EV -10.15%E -6.35%K -16.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.06%EV -8.25%E -1.03%K -1.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-21 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 32.47%EV -11.61%E -4.25%K -6.71%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.10%EV -11.28%E -7.14%K -19.44%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.44%EV -11.12%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-21 16:48
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.59%E -5.96%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -13.99%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-21 13:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.59%E -5.96%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -13.99%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-21 13:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -10.96%E -3.99%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.55%EV -9.59%E -5.96%K -15.72%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.93%EV -13.99%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-21 13:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -6.10%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.75%EV -14.08%E -9.21%K -26.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.78%EV -13.99%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-21 13:19
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.47%EV -6.10%E -2.11%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.75%EV -14.08%E -9.21%K -26.57%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.78%EV -13.99%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-21 13:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.35%EV -12.58%E -4.66%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.00%EV -12.40%E -7.95%K -22.14%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.65%EV -13.99%E -1.87%K -2.15%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-21 13:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.66I 37.59%NM 32.51%1.55I 64.52%NM 55.80%7.40I 13.51%NM 11.69%15.6%2026-05-21 13:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.40%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%5.4%2026-05-21 16:50