The School of Odds
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SC DHfK Leipzig v Frisch Auf Göppingen

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC DHfK Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 48.61%2.06fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -3.20%
Kelly -6.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.64%48.58%48.67%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.821.831.9359.52%54.90%54.64%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)

Prediction 39.26%2.55fair odd
EV +0.114%
Edge +0.045%
Kelly +0.074%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.91%39.41%39.27%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.412.382.5544.84%41.51%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.13%8.25fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +0.498%
Kelly +0.564%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 8.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.66%12.00%12.06%12.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.637.758.6014.29%13.10%12.90%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC DHfK Leipzig (Local): 48.61%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 39.26%; Draw: 12.13%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.24%EV -7.64%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.10%EV -12.45%E -5.58%K -10.12%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.66%EV +4.29%E +0.498%K +0.564%G +0.024%9.1%2026-04-09 15:30
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 16:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -13.95%E -7.88%K -18.12%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV +0.114%E +0.045%K +0.074%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 16:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.64%EV -6.18%E -3.20%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.87%EV -11.66%E -5.18%K -9.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -2.99%E -0.374%K -0.427%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-09 15:30
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.36%EV -8.61%E -4.58%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.67%EV -5.77%E -2.41%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -6.02%E -0.777%K -0.892%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-09 15:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.69%EV -7.64%E -4.02%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -7.74%E -3.29%K -5.73%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.94%EV -6.02%E -0.777%K -0.892%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-09 15:30
Betsson🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -9.09%E -4.86%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.38%EV -9.31%E -4.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.97%EV -7.84%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 15:30
NordicBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.65%EV -9.09%E -4.86%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.38%EV -9.31%E -4.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.97%EV -7.84%E -1.03%K -1.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-09 15:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.61%EV -7.15%E -3.74%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.01%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -9.05%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-09 15:31
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -9.09%E -4.86%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.32%EV -9.31%E -4.03%K -7.11%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -9.05%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-09 15:29
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.36%EV -18.33%E -10.91%K -26.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.91%EV -3.81%E -1.56%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.73%EV -9.05%E -1.21%K -1.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-09 15:55
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -11.04%E -6.03%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-09 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -11.04%E -6.03%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-09 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.25%EV -11.04%E -6.03%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.87%EV -6.56%E -2.76%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-09 16:01
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -11.04%E -6.03%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -9.70%E -4.22%K -7.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-09 15:28
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -11.04%E -6.03%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -9.70%E -4.22%K -7.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -11.04%E -6.03%K -13.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.68%EV -9.70%E -4.22%K -7.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.71%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 16:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 48.34%EV -11.52%E -6.33%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.10%EV -11.66%E -5.18%K -9.33%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.57%EV -15.12%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-09 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.80I 55.56%NM 48.19%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.42%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.39%15.3%2026-04-09 15:31

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%5.2%2026-04-09 15:55