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SC DHfK Leipzig v Bergischer HC

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC DHfK Leipzig (Local)

Prediction 67.55%1.48fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -2.87%
Kelly -9.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.32%67.63%67.60%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.371.361.4278.13%73.22%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bergischer HC (Visit)

Prediction 23.26%4.30fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.532%
Kelly +0.688%
Growth +0.016%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.50%23.19%23.15%25.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.423.883.794.4029.24%25.79%26.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.19%10.88fair odd
EV +1.09%
Edge +0.099%
Kelly +0.109%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.29%9.19%9.26%9.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.9410.0011.0011.11%10.06%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC DHfK Leipzig (Local): 67.55%; Bergischer HC (Visit): 23.26%; Draw: 9.19%. For Bergischer HC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.48%EV -13.53%E -10.57%K -48.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV +2.34%E +0.532%K +0.688%G +0.016%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-27 11:59
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.48%EV -13.53%E -10.57%K -48.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV +2.34%E +0.532%K +0.688%G +0.016%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%10.9%2026-02-27 11:59
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.68%EV -8.81%E -6.52%K -25.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV +0.014%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%7.9%2026-02-28 23:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.40%EV -9.48%E -7.08%K -27.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.14%EV -2.31%E -0.550%K -0.722%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%7.5%2026-02-28 06:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.42%EV -5.43%E -3.88%K -13.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 03:40
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -10.16%E -7.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 23:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -10.16%E -7.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 23:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.55%EV -10.16%E -7.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -6.96%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.98%EV -17.29%E -1.92%K -2.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 23:09
NordicBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.61%EV -10.16%E -7.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.10%EV -8.13%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%9.6%2026-02-28 09:04
Betsson🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.61%EV -10.16%E -7.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.10%EV -8.13%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.29%EV +1.09%E +0.099%K +0.109%G +0.001%9.6%2026-02-28 09:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.07%EV -7.45%E -5.44%K -20.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -11.62%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -3.51%E -0.334%K -0.369%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-01 14:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.62%EV -12.18%E -9.37%K -40.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -11.62%E -3.06%K -4.15%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.25%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-01 09:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.47%EV -6.78%E -4.91%K -17.84%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.27%EV -12.08%E -3.20%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.90I 10.10%NM 9.27%EV -9.02%E -0.911%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 12:34
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.90%EV -10.16%E -7.64%K -30.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.78%E -3.41%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.37%EV -12.70%E -1.34%K -1.49%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-28 20:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:34
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:39
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:34
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:34
Casumo🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:34
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.54%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -13.94%E -3.77%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -8.10%E -0.810%K -0.900%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-28 08:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 65.32%EV -10.83%E -8.21%K -33.85%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.21%EV -20.45%E -5.98%K -8.45%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 9.47%EV -16.37%E -1.80%K -2.02%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-01 15:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 65.22%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.14%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.64%15.3%2026-02-28 20:04

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.46%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.54%6.2%2026-03-01 10:44