The School of Odds
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MT Melsungen v TSV Hannover-Burgdorf

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 18:01 UTC

Final: MT Melsungen 28–22 TSV Hannover-Burgdorf

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

MT Melsungen (Local)

Prediction 64.17%1.56fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -12.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.54%64.27%64.21%65.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.431.421.4772.46%70.16%70.42%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Visit)

Prediction 25.87%3.87fair odd
EV +3.47%
Edge +0.867%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.78%25.56%26.13%26.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.583.504.0030.30%27.97%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.96%10.04fair odd
EV -0.368%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.041%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.28%10.16%9.66%12.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.708.5010.0013.33%11.50%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 64.17%; TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Visit): 25.87%; Draw: 9.96%. For TSV Hannover-Burgdorf (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.47%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -8.88%E -6.25%K -21.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV +3.47%E +0.867%K +1.16%G +0.040%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-03 18:01
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.08%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV +3.47%E +0.867%K +1.16%G +0.040%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -25.28%E -3.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-03 18:00
NordicBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.59%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -3.00%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 17:55
Betsson🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.59%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -3.00%E -0.800%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-03 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.71%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.29%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -10.33%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 18:01
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.71%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.29%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -10.33%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.71%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.29%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.28%EV -10.33%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 18:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.54%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.29%E -1.16%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -5.35%E -0.563%K -0.629%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.29%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.25%EV -6.88%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.45%EV -0.368%E -0.037%K -0.041%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-03 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.93%EV -8.24%E -5.76%K -19.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.88%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -0.368%E -0.037%K -0.041%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 17:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.49%EV -8.88%E -6.25%K -21.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.16%EV -9.47%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.34%EV -2.36%E -0.241%K -0.268%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-03 17:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.49%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -9.47%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 06:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.49%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -9.47%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 06:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.49%EV -10.16%E -7.26%K -25.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -9.47%E -2.70%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-02 06:20
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.76%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -15.31%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.76%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -15.31%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 07:50
Grosvenor🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.76%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -15.31%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 07:50
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.76%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -15.31%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.54%EV -5.67%E -3.86%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -10.76%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -15.31%E -1.80%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-03 07:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 63.59%EV -11.45%E -8.29%K -30.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.44%EV -10.76%E -3.12%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.97%EV -20.29%E -2.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-03 18:01
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.65%EV -7.60%E -5.27%K -17.26%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.80%EV -11.53%E -3.37%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.55%EV -4.35%E -0.453%K -0.506%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 06:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.67%EV -10.80%E -7.77%K -27.70%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.66%EV -14.12%E -4.25%K -6.09%G +0.000%9.15I 10.93%NM 9.67%EV -8.84%E -0.966%K -1.08%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-03 17:47
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.47%EV -10.80%E -7.77%K -27.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.73%EV -14.64%E -4.44%K -6.36%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.80%EV -10.33%E -1.15%K -1.29%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-03 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 63.14%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03%8.80I 11.36%NM 9.83%15.6%2026-10-03 17:51

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%6.1%2026-10-03 15:25